Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Brandon Nakashima vs Ben Shelton Prediction

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #32
38%
VS

Ben Shelton

Rank: #8
62%
Predicted Games Played: 25.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Ranking Trends

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current Rank: #32 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #41 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #35 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #54 (2024-07-29)

Ben Shelton

  • Current Rank: #8 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #14 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #19 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #14 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 59.9
ELO Rating: 1248.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 112.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.5
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 11.7
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 84.1

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 66.6
ELO Rating: 1637.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1723.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 65.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 84.0

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Toronto 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Washington 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Washington 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Washington 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Ben Shelton
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Toronto 65 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Washington 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Washington 117 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) hard Washington 61 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) hard Washington 75 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
4
Ben Shelton
Hard
0 - 3
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Toronto Masters 1000, Brandon Nakashima faces off against Ben Shelton on hard courts in Canada. The match is anticipated to be competitive, with Shelton predicted to emerge victorious with a 62.16% chance of winning, while Nakashima holds a 37.84% probability of success. The projected total number of games in this encounter is estimated at 25.

Match Analysis

Brandon Nakashima, currently ranked 32, has a form index of 59.87 and an Elo rating of 1248.66. His cumulative fatigue stands at 112 minutes, reflecting a demanding path through the tournament. His surface strength index is measured at 12.52, with a mean serve index of 98.03 and a mean return index of 84.14. In contrast, Ben Shelton, ranked 8, displays a stronger form index of 66.57 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1637.33. With only 65 minutes of fatigue, Shelton exhibits better stamina. His surface strength index is slightly higher at 13.24, while his mean serve index at 96.49 shows a marginal difference of less than 5 points compared to Nakashima, and his mean return index of 84.04 is quite close as well. In their recent performances, Nakashima secured a solid win against Ethan Quinn in Toronto, winning 2-0 in sets, but previously lost to Alex de Minaur in Washington. He also had a victory over Cameron Norrie before that. Shelton, on the other hand, also won his last match against Adrian Mannarino with a convincing 2-0 scoreline, but suffered an unexpected loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He claimed victory over Frances Tiafoe in their preceding encounter, showcasing resilience.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's higher ranking, better form index, and significantly superior Elo rating grant him an advantageous position heading into this match. The key factor to monitor will be the players’ serve effectiveness, as both possess strong serve indices; however, the consistency on return games could tilt the balance in Shelton's favor.