Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Brandon Nakashima vs Cameron Norrie Prediction

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #32
47%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #41
53%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

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Ranking Trends

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #32 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #32 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #35 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #38 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #55 2024-07-22

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #41 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #91 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #52 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #53 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #44 2024-07-22

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 67.6
ELO Rating: 1210.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 80.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 11.7
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 84.1

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 76.8
ELO Rating: 1508.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1725.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 229.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 11.3
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Washington 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (1-2) grass London 142 min

Cameron Norrie
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
0
Cameron Norrie
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Brandon Nakashima and Cameron Norrie in the Round of 16 at the Washington hard-court tournament promises to be a competitive clash. With both players eager to advance, Cameron Norrie is predicted to secure the win with a probability of 52.87%, while Brandon Nakashima stands at 47.13%. The anticipated total number of games played is projected at 24.

Match Analysis

Brandon Nakashima currently holds a rank of 32, with a form index of 67.56 and an Elo rating of 1210.56. He exhibits a commendable mean serve index of 98.03 and a mean return index of 84.09. However, his cumulative fatigue of 80 minutes may affect his performance. In contrast, Cameron Norrie ranks 41st and has a higher form index of 76.80 along with a significantly elevated Elo rating of 1508.54. Norrie's mean serve index of 95.47 is slightly lower than Nakashima's, but his mean return index of 88.40 indicates a stronger return game, with a difference that exceeds the 5-point threshold. In their recent performances, Nakashima has won two of his last three matches, including a straight-sets victory over Ethan Quinn in Washington. His only defeat came against Lorenzo Sonego at Wimbledon, where he fought hard but fell short. Norrie, meanwhile, has also won two of his last three matches, with his most recent victory against Lorenzo Musetti showcasing resilience and competitive spirit. His loss to Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon, albeit against a top player, reflects the challenges he faced in that bout.

Final Prediction

Cameron Norrie's edge in Elo rating and return strength provides him with a slight advantage heading into this match. The key factor to monitor will be how both players manage their fatigue levels, particularly Norrie, who has accumulated 229 minutes on court during the tournament. This could significantly influence their performance and overall match dynamics.

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