Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Cameron Norrie vs Jacob Fearnley Prediction

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #91
56%
VS

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #57
44%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

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Ranking Trends

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #91 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #74 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #49 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #47 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #33 2024-05-27

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #57 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #81 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #98 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #158 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #522 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 79.7
ELO Rating: 1353.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1706.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.7

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 72.4
ELO Rating: 925.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 7.9
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Federico Agustin Gomez (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (1-2) clay Geneva 134 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) clay Geneva 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) clay Geneva 105 min

Jacob Fearnley
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Jacob Fearnley
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 32 at Roland Garros sees Cameron Norrie face off against Jacob Fearnley on the clay surface in France. Norrie enters the match as the predicted winner with a probability of 55.64%, while Fearnley holds a 44.36% chance of victory. The anticipated total number of games played is projected to be 37.

Match Analysis

Cameron Norrie, currently ranked 91, has a higher form index of 79.72 compared to Fearnley's 72.39, indicating superior current performance levels. Norrie's Elo rating stands at 1353.63, significantly higher than Fearnley's 925.32, suggesting a greater experience and skill level. Both players have accumulated identical fatigue levels of 348 minutes during the tournament, however, Norrie excels in his surface strength index (11.20 vs. 7.90), which is crucial on clay. Notably, Norrie's mean serve index is 97.35, while Fearnley’s is slightly lower at 94.75, showcasing a considerable advantage in serving prowess. In their most recent matches, Norrie has demonstrated strong resilience, winning his last two encounters against tough opponents, including a straight-sets victory over Federico Agustin Gomez. Conversely, Fearnley has also shown determination, reaching the Round of 32 with wins over Ugo Humbert and Stan Wawrinka, but his performance has been less consistent compared to Norrie's recent form.

Final Prediction

Cameron Norrie's edge lies in his higher Elo rating, superior form index, and better performance metrics, particularly in serving capabilities. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Norrie can leverage his serve against Fearnley's return game, as this could heavily influence the match's outcome.

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