Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Cameron Norrie vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #41
35%
VS

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #7
65%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 79.8
ELO Rating: 1393.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1720.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 103.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 11.3
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.4

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 60.4
ELO Rating: 2696.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1731.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.1
Clay: 24.0
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie

  • Last Match: vs Billy Harris (2-0) hard Washington 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Nicolas Jarry (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Last Match: vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Holger Rune (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Lorenzo Musetti
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 tournament in Washington, DC, Cameron Norrie faces off against Lorenzo Musetti on hard court. The prediction leans in favor of Musetti, with a win probability of 65.20% compared to Norrie's 34.80%. The expected total number of games in this match is projected to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Cameron Norrie currently holds the 41st rank and has a form index of 79.78, which suggests a decent level of play. His Elo rating stands at 1393, and he has accumulated 103 minutes of fatigue in this tournament. Norrie’s surface strength index is 10.03, while his mean serve index is 96.91 and his return index is 88.42. In contrast, Lorenzo Musetti, ranked 7th, boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 2696 and a surface strength index of 14.09. Musetti has zero fatigue from the current tournament, indicating he is fresh and ready to compete. His mean serve index is 95.45, while his return index is 88.24. Although the mean serve indices are relatively close, Norrie's return index is slightly higher, but the difference is minimal. Both players have had mixed results in their recent matches. Norrie's last outing was a convincing win against Billy Harris, but prior to that, he faced a tough challenge at Wimbledon against Carlos Alcaraz, where he did not win a set. Musetti, on the other hand, has struggled in his last two matches at Wimbledon and Roland Garros, losing to notable opponents despite a spirited performance against Frances Tiafoe in the earlier rounds of the latter tournament.

Final Prediction

Musetti's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and lack of fatigue give him a significant advantage heading into this match. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Norrie can utilize his slightly better return index to counter Musetti’s serve and overall game plan.