Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #41
52%
VS

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #36
48%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

Why the Model Favors Cameron Norrie

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +3.7 Cameron Norrie
Age +2.4 Matteo Arnaldi
Overall record & opposition quality +1.5 Matteo Arnaldi
Surface fit +1.4 Cameron Norrie
Recent form +1.2 Matteo Arnaldi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Cameron Norrie. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #41 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #37 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #19 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #26 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-11-03

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current #36 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #35 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #106 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #65 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #64 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 29.3
ELO Rating: 1651.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1720.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.4
Clay: 23.9
Grass: 22.7
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.6

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 30.0
ELO Rating: 1617.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1632.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.7
Clay: 34.2
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Matteo Arnaldi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Norrie is a narrow favourite, with the forecast giving him 52% to Arnaldi’s 48%. The Round of 64 match in Paris is projected to reach 25.3 games.

Match Analysis

Norrie’s more balanced serve-and-return game is the clearest advantage in this matchup. He rates ahead of Arnaldi in both areas, and his stronger return could help him put more pressure on the Italian’s service games. Arnaldi has the higher ranking, 36th to Norrie’s 41st, and the age and broader opposition-quality comparisons lean his way. His last three listed matches were all losses, while Norrie has one win in that span, so the recent results offer little support for Arnaldi’s narrow case.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Cameron Norrie - Matteo Arnaldi) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Norrie is projected for 4.8 aces and 2.1 double faults, while Arnaldi is forecast for 6.7 aces and 2.6 double faults. The match’s expected length gives both servers opportunities to add to their totals, with Arnaldi projected to find more aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.4 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Cameron Norrie 4.8 + Matteo Arnaldi 6.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Cameron Norrie 2.1 + Matteo Arnaldi 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Cameron Norrie

Expected 4.8 aces

Matteo Arnaldi

Expected 6.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Cameron Norrie

Expected 2.1 double faults

Matteo Arnaldi

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Cameron Norrie's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Arnaldi’s projected ace advantage is the most tangible way to overturn the close forecast. If it helps him protect his service games, Norrie’s edge on return may not be enough.

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