Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
69%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
31%
Expected Total Games: 37.4
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 97.6
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2202.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 50.7
Return Rating: 53.6

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 4080.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1859.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 95.3
Clay: 95.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 91.0

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Corentin Moutet (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Adam Walton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Paris 142 min

Alex de Minaur

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the Australian Open 2026, the top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz takes on the sixth-ranked Alex de Minaur on hard courts in Australia. Alcaraz is favored to win with a probability of 69.34%, while de Minaur has a 30.66% chance of advancing. The match is expected to feature approximately 37.36 games in total.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, with a current ranking of 1, boasts an impressive form index of 97.58 and an Elo rating of 12050. His surface strength index is a perfect 100, indicating exceptional performance on hard courts. Alcaraz's mean serve index is 50.73, while his mean return index stands at 53.63, showcasing his balanced skill set. In contrast, Alex de Minaur, ranked 6, has a perfect form index of 100 and an Elo rating of 4080. His surface strength index is slightly lower at 95.28, but his mean serve index of 95.75 reflects his strong serving capabilities. The significant gap in their mean serve indices indicates that de Minaur has a distinct advantage in serving compared to Alcaraz. However, Alcaraz's superior return index suggests he may effectively counter de Minaur's serves. Both players have shown remarkable consistency in their recent performances, winning all their last three matches in straight sets. Alcaraz has not dropped a single set in the tournament so far, defeating Tommy Paul, Corentin Moutet, and Yannick Hanfmann. Similarly, de Minaur has also been dominant, overcoming Alexander Bublik, Frances Tiafoe, and Hamad Medjedovic, with the latter match being the only one where he dropped a set.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.4 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Carlos Alcaraz versus Alex de Minaur. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Carlos Alcaraz versus Alex de Minaur. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Alex de Minaur) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Alex de Minaur wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Carlos Alcaraz versus Alex de Minaur. Positive values indicate Carlos Alcaraz winning more games, negative values indicate Alex de Minaur winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Carlos Alcaraz versus Alex de Minaur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.06 aces and 5.63 double faults. Given the medium-paced nature of hard courts, these predictions are reasonable, as the surface tends to balance the performance of both powerful servers and strong returners. de Minaur's higher mean serve index may lead to a greater share of the expected aces, but Alcaraz's superior return capabilities could neutralize this advantage and reduce double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Carlos Alcaraz versus Alex de Minaur. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Carlos Alcaraz versus Alex de Minaur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Carlos Alcaraz versus Alex de Minaur. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Carlos Alcaraz versus Alex de Minaur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's edge comes from his unparalleled form and return game, which could exploit any weaknesses in de Minaur's serve. Observers should pay close attention to the effectiveness of Alcaraz's returns, as this will likely be a key factor in determining the match's outcome.

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