Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Semifinals

Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #8
29%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
71%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #8 2025-05-19
  • 3 mo ago #17 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #17 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #18 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #30 2024-05-27

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #2 2025-05-19
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #3 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 93.4
ELO Rating: 2824.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1739.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.1
Clay: 23.9
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 88.4

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 94.2
ELO Rating: 6533.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2359.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 59.7
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Giulio Zeppieri (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
3
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 2
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the 2025 Roland Garros, Lorenzo Musetti will face Carlos Alcaraz on the iconic clay courts of France. With a predicted winning probability of 71.01% for Alcaraz compared to Musetti's 28.99%, the match is anticipated to be competitive, with an estimated total of 36 games played.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked 2nd, boasts a form index of 94.23 and an impressive Elo rating of 6533.20, showcasing his strong performance leading into this match. His surface strength index of 59.66 indicates a solid proficiency on clay, and while both players share the same cumulative fatigue of 870 minutes, Alcaraz's slightly higher mean serve index (94.78) gives him an edge over Musetti's 97.00. Additionally, the difference in their mean return indices is negligible, with Musetti at 88.36 compared to Alcaraz's 87.52. Lorenzo Musetti, ranked 8th, has shown commendable form with a form index of 93.36 and a competitive Elo rating of 2824.41. His performances in the tournament have been consistent, winning three consecutive matches against quality opponents, including Frances Tiafoe and Holger Rune, both in four-set battles that lasted 174 minutes. Meanwhile, Alcaraz has also been dominant, winning all his last three matches convincingly, including a recent straight-sets victory over Tommy Paul.

Final Prediction

Alcaraz's higher rank, stronger surface strength, and consistent recent performances give him a significant advantage in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how well Musetti can handle Alcaraz's serve, as the difference in serving ability could be crucial to the outcome of the match.

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