Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Reilly Opelka vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #66
18%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
82%
Expected Total Games: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #66 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #93 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #114 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #299 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #324 2024-08-26

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #2 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 49.3
ELO Rating: 1038.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 82.8

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 68.8
ELO Rating: 6790.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2361.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.8
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Reilly Opelka
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Comesana (1-2) hard Cincinnati 188 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) hard Cincinnati 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) hard Cincinnati 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Toronto 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) hard Toronto 140 min

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Reilly Opelka
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the US Open in New York features Reilly Opelka facing off against Carlos Alcaraz in the Round of 128, on hard court. Given the current form and statistics, Alcaraz is predicted to win with an 81.89% probability, while Opelka's chances stand at 18.11%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 35 games played.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked 2, boasts a formidable form index of 68.81 and an impressive Elo rating of 6790.31, indicating he is in peak condition. In contrast, Reilly Opelka is ranked 66, with a significantly lower form index of 49.28 and an Elo rating of 1038.04. Both players show no fatigue, having not spent extended time on court in their recent matches. Alcaraz’s surface strength index of 55.84 also highlights his proficiency on hard courts compared to Opelka's 8.92. Analyzing their recent performances, Alcaraz has won all three of his last matches convincingly, including a swift victory over Jannik Sinner. He has demonstrated a high level of play, winning without dropping a set in his last two matches. Opelka's recent outings have been mixed; he secured a notable win against Alex de Minaur but lost his latest match against Francisco Comesana, suggesting some inconsistency as he enters this contest.

Final Prediction

Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and recent performances provide him with a distinct edge over Opelka in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be Alcaraz’s return game, as his mean return index of 87.26 significantly outshines Opelka's 82.81, potentially allowing him to capitalize on Opelka's serve effectively.

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