Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Finals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
66%
VS

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #5
34%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #1 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-09-23)

Taylor Fritz

  • Current Rank: #5 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #5 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #4 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #4 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #7 (2024-09-23)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 78.9
ELO Rating: 6918.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2365.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 377.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.0
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.1

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 78.1
ELO Rating: 3959.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1828.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 470.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.2
Clay: 37.4
Grass: 44.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Tokio 128 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Tokio 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Tokio 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Taylor Fritz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Korda (2-1) hard Tokio 138 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Tokio 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Tokio 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Taylor Fritz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The finals of the Tokyo tournament are set to feature an exciting clash between world number one Carlos Alcaraz and fifth-ranked Taylor Fritz. The match will take place on hard courts, with Alcaraz favored to win, carrying a probability of 66.42% compared to Fritz's 33.58%. The predicted total number of games played is 23.0, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz enters the finals with a strong form index of 78.86 and an impressive Elo rating of 6918.31, showcasing his dominance throughout the tournament. His cumulative fatigue of 377 minutes is relatively low, reflecting his ability to maintain high performance levels. Alcaraz boasts a surface strength index of 56.96, reinforced by a mean serve index of 95.61 and a mean return index of 87.07, giving him a significant edge in both serving and returning capabilities against Fritz. In contrast, Taylor Fritz, while ranking fifth, has a form index of 78.13 and an Elo rating of 3959.37. His cumulative fatigue of 470 minutes suggests he has spent more time on the court in this tournament, which may impact his performance. Fritz's surface strength index stands at 31.16, with a mean serve index of 96.79 and a mean return index of 85.60. The difference in mean serve index is minimal, but Alcaraz's superior return index may play a crucial role in dictating the flow of the match. In recent performances, Alcaraz has showcased consistent dominance, winning all three of his last matches in straight sets, while Fritz has also been victorious, but with more competitive matches, including one that went to three sets.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's current form, lower fatigue levels, and superior return capabilities give him a definitive advantage going into the finals. A key factor to watch will be how Fritz handles Alcaraz's powerful returns and whether he can maintain his serve under pressure from the top-ranked player.