Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alexander Bublik vs Casper Ruud Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #76
33%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #7
67%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #76 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #49 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #34 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #17 2024-05-06

Casper Ruud

  • Current #7 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #5 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #7 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #9 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #7 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 55.9
ELO Rating: 1296.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1639.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 97.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 12.3
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 86.5

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 65.0
ELO Rating: 3682.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1796.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.2
Clay: 34.3
Grass: 36.9
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Rome Masters 1000, Alexander Bublik faces Casper Ruud on clay, a surface that typically favors baseline players. Based on the analysis, Casper Ruud is predicted to win with a probability of 66.98%, while Alexander Bublik has a 33.02% chance of victory. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 23 games.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud, currently ranked 7th, boasts a superior form index of 65.04 compared to Bublik's 55.87, indicating better recent performance. Ruud's Elo rating stands at an impressive 3682, significantly higher than Bublik's 1296, showcasing his experience and skill level. In terms of fatigue, Ruud has none, while Bublik carries 97 minutes from his prior matches, potentially impacting his performance. Furthermore, Ruud's surface strength index is considerably higher at 34.32 compared to Bublik's 12.26, suggesting Ruud's greater proficiency on clay. Both players have had contrasting results in their recent matches. Bublik's last three matches include a win against Roman Safiullin, but he faced a loss to Jakub Mensik in the Madrid tournament. In contrast, Ruud has been in formidable form, winning all three of his recent matches against competitive opponents, including Daniil Medvedev and Jack Draper, in straight sets. This demonstrates Ruud's consistency and ability to perform well under pressure.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud's edge comes from his superior ranking, recent form, and lack of fatigue, combined with his stronger clay-court ability. A key factor to watch will be Ruud's return game, which can capitalize on Bublik's fatigue and potentially dictate the pace of the match.

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