Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Marcos Giron vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marcos Giron

Rank: #59
41%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #13
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Player Metrics

Marcos Giron

Form Index: 36.5
ELO Rating: 1015.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1624.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.3
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 74.2
Return Rating: 56.3

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 71.7
ELO Rating: 2644.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1913.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.0
Clay: 22.3
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Marcos Giron

Casper Ruud

  • Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (0-2) hard Auckland 81 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Marcos Giron
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 match at Delray Beach, FL is played on hard courts at an ATP 250-level event. The model favors Casper Ruud to win (59.33%) over Marcos Giron (40.67%), with a projected total of about 23.85 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud enters the match as the higher-ranked player (No.13) with a substantially stronger form index (71.68 vs Giron’s 36.45) and a far higher Elo (2644.36 vs 1015.65). Ruud shows a much stronger serving profile (mean serve index 97.35) compared with Giron (74.18) — a difference exceeding 5 points — and also a markedly better return index (86.73 vs 56.31), another gap well over 5 points. Giron is ranked 59th with solid baseline consistency and a respectable serve index, but his surface strength index (6.31) trails Ruud’s (15.99). Giron also carries 86 minutes of court time at this tournament, which may contribute to fatigue considerations. Looking at recent form: Giron won his Delray Beach opener against Sho Shimabukuro but lost earlier encounters to Taylor Fritz and Learner Tien, with two long matches (146 and 174 minutes) on his recent slate. Ruud’s recent sequence includes wins over Marin Cilic and Jaume Munar before a loss to Ben Shelton at the Australian Open; his current tournament fatigue is listed at 0 minutes. Overall, Ruud’s higher form index, superior serve and return metrics, and cleaner tournament workload give him the edge on a medium-paced hard court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Marcos Giron versus Casper Ruud. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Marcos Giron versus Casper Ruud. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marcos Giron - Casper Ruud) +0.6 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Marcos Giron versus Casper Ruud. Positive values indicate Marcos Giron winning more games, negative values indicate Casper Ruud winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Marcos Giron versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 21.23 total, while the predicted double faults are 4.86. On a medium-paced hard court that tends to produce a moderate number of aces, Ruud’s significantly higher serve rating should drive a larger share of the predicted aces (predicted aces skewed toward the player with the superior serve). The double faults prediction is modest; expected double faults should be limited, though service aggressiveness from Ruud could influence that count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Marcos Giron versus Casper Ruud. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Marcos Giron versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Marcos Giron versus Casper Ruud. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Marcos Giron versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Ruud’s superior form, Elo and much stronger serve/return indices give him the projected advantage in this hard-court matchup. A key factor to watch will be Ruud’s serve efficiency and how effectively Giron can generate pressure on serve returns early in service games.

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