Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Marcos Giron vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Marcos Giron

Rank: #59
41%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #13
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Ranking Trends

Marcos Giron

  • Current Rank: #59 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #66 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #55 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #43 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #52 (2025-02-17)

Casper Ruud

  • Current Rank: #13 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #12 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #12 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #7 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Marcos Giron

Form Index: 36.5
ELO Rating: 1015.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1624.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.3
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 74.2
Return Rating: 56.3

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 71.7
ELO Rating: 2644.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1913.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.0
Clay: 22.3
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Marcos Giron
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-0) hard Delray Beach 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) hard Dallas 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) hard Auckland 155 min

Casper Ruud
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (0-2) hard Auckland 81 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Marcos Giron
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 match at Delray Beach, FL is played on hard courts at an ATP 250-level event. The model favors Casper Ruud to win (59.33%) over Marcos Giron (40.67%), with a projected total of about 23.85 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud enters the match as the higher-ranked player (No.13) with a substantially stronger form index (71.68 vs Giron’s 36.45) and a far higher Elo (2644.36 vs 1015.65). Ruud shows a much stronger serving profile (mean serve index 97.35) compared with Giron (74.18) — a difference exceeding 5 points — and also a markedly better return index (86.73 vs 56.31), another gap well over 5 points. Giron is ranked 59th with solid baseline consistency and a respectable serve index, but his surface strength index (6.31) trails Ruud’s (15.99). Giron also carries 86 minutes of court time at this tournament, which may contribute to fatigue considerations. Looking at recent form: Giron won his Delray Beach opener against Sho Shimabukuro but lost earlier encounters to Taylor Fritz and Learner Tien, with two long matches (146 and 174 minutes) on his recent slate. Ruud’s recent sequence includes wins over Marin Cilic and Jaume Munar before a loss to Ben Shelton at the Australian Open; his current tournament fatigue is listed at 0 minutes. Overall, Ruud’s higher form index, superior serve and return metrics, and cleaner tournament workload give him the edge on a medium-paced hard court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 21.23 total, while the predicted double faults are 4.86. On a medium-paced hard court that tends to produce a moderate number of aces, Ruud’s significantly higher serve rating should drive a larger share of the predicted aces (predicted aces skewed toward the player with the superior serve). The double faults prediction is modest; expected double faults should be limited, though service aggressiveness from Ruud could influence that count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s superior form, Elo and much stronger serve/return indices give him the projected advantage in this hard-court matchup. A key factor to watch will be Ruud’s serve efficiency and how effectively Giron can generate pressure on serve returns early in service games.

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