Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marin Cilic

Rank: #70
25%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #13
75%
Expected Total Games: 39.2
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Player Metrics

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 86.8
ELO Rating: 960.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1541.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 7.8
Serve Rating: 66.4
Return Rating: 43.5

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 74.0
ELO Rating: 2644.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1917.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.0
Clay: 22.1
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Marin Cilic

Casper Ruud

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marin Cilic
vs
1
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Marin Cilic and Casper Ruud at the Australian Open marks an important clash in the Round of 32 on hard courts. With Ruud ranked 13th and Cilic at 70th, the odds favor Ruud significantly, with a winning probability of 75.20% compared to Cilic's 24.80%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 39.25, suggesting a competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud holds a superior ranking and Elo rating compared to Marin Cilic, with Ruud sitting at 13th and possessing an Elo rating of 2644, while Cilic is ranked 70th with an Elo rating of 960. Ruud's form index of 73.99 indicates solid recent performance, while Cilic's form index is notably higher at 86.85, reflecting an uptick in his play despite his lower ranking. Notably, Ruud excels in both serve and return metrics, with a mean serve index of 97.50 and a return index of 90.60, both of which are considerably better than Cilic's mean serve index of 66.38 and return index of 43.52. This disparity in serve and return capabilities could play a critical role in the match's outcome. In their last three matches, both players have shown varying levels of performance. Cilic has secured two wins against Denis Shapovalov and Daniel Altmaier in the Australian Open but faced a loss to Nuno Borges in his last tournament in Hong Kong. Conversely, Ruud has won his three most recent matches convincingly, demonstrating his capability to dominate on hard courts, particularly in the Australian Open where he remains undefeated in this tournament phase.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.2 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Marin Cilic versus Casper Ruud. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Marin Cilic versus Casper Ruud. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marin Cilic - Casper Ruud) +2.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Marin Cilic wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Marin Cilic versus Casper Ruud. Positive values indicate Marin Cilic winning more games, negative values indicate Casper Ruud winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Marin Cilic versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match is around 15.92, while the expected double faults prediction stands at 5.94. On hard courts, both players are likely to produce a moderate number of aces, given the surface's balanced nature that benefits both powerful servers and adept returners. Notably, Ruud's significantly higher serve index suggests he might be responsible for a greater share of the aces, potentially tipping the balance in his favor.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Marin Cilic versus Casper Ruud. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Marin Cilic versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Marin Cilic versus Casper Ruud. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Marin Cilic versus Casper Ruud. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud's combination of superior ranking, form, and serve-return metrics gives him a clear advantage over Marin Cilic. A key factor to watch will be Ruud's ability to leverage his stronger serve against Cilic, which could determine the flow and outcome of the match.

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