Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
51%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #57
49%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Casper Ruud

  • Current #12 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #15 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #6 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #6 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #9 2024-09-23

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #57 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #35 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #34 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #45 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 52.6
ELO Rating: 3109.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1782.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 99.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.9
Clay: 30.6
Grass: 34.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 85.8

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 36.8
ELO Rating: 1489.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1607.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 96.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 14.5
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 84.7

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Matteo Berrettini
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Casper Ruud
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo, Casper Ruud faces Matteo Berrettini on hard courts. The match promises to be closely contested, with Ruud slightly favored to win at a probability of 51.27%, compared to Berrettini's 48.73%. The predicted total number of games played is 24.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud, currently ranked 12, boasts a form index of 52.55 and an Elo rating of 3109.39. His fatigue level is high at 99 minutes, yet his surface strength index stands at an impressive 18.90. Ruud's mean serve index of 96.86 gives him a slight edge over Berrettini's 96.80, but both players are evenly matched in serving. On the return side, Ruud's mean return index of 85.80 outperforms Berrettini's 84.70, indicating a stronger capability to capitalize on Berrettini's serves. In their recent performances, Ruud has shown resilience, winning against Shintaro Mochizuki in his last match, while he faced a challenging defeat against Raphael Collignon in the previous round. Berrettini, on the other hand, secured a victory against Jaume Munar but struggled against Dalibor Svrcina in his prior outing. Both players have faced ups and downs recently, but Ruud's overall better form and slightly stronger metrics may provide him with the necessary momentum.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud's advantages in return performance and a slightly superior form index give him an edge going into this match. A key factor to watch will be how effectively he can utilize his return game to put pressure on Berrettini's serves, potentially dictating the outcome of the match.

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