Paris Paris Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar Prediction

Casper Ruud

Rank: #23
37%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #10
63%
Expected Total Games: 25.4
Predicted Winner: Rafael Jodar

Why the Model Favors Rafael Jodar

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall record & opposition quality +3.1 Rafael Jodar
Age +2.5 Rafael Jodar
Surface fit +2.5 Rafael Jodar
Recent record by level +2.3 Rafael Jodar
Recent form +0.8 Rafael Jodar

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Rafael Jodar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Casper Ruud

  • Current #23 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #25 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-11-03

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #10 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #15 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #34 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #124 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #166 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 48.1
ELO Rating: 1819.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1842.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 60.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.0
Clay: 42.8
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 89.8

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 57.6
ELO Rating: 1924.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1927.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 76.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.1
Clay: 37.0
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Rafael Jodar
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
1
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rafael Jodar is favored at 63%, against 37% for Casper Ruud, with 25.4 total games projected. The Paris Round of 32 forecast leans toward Jodar, though Ruud retains a substantial chance.

Match Analysis

Jodar’s higher ranking, 10th to Ruud’s 23rd, reflects the stronger overall level that separates them in the forecast. The age comparison also points his way, and his hard-court profile is better, giving him another advantage on this surface. Their latest results offer little separation: both won in straight sets in Paris, Ruud against Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Jodar against Alejandro Tabilo. That leaves Jodar’s broader level and surface fit as the more persuasive factors, rather than a clear difference in immediate form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.4 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Casper Ruud - Rafael Jodar) -1.6 Most likely spread: -2 (Rafael Jodar wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Ruud is projected for 6.4 aces and Jodar for 4.9. On this medium-paced hard court, Ruud’s slightly stronger serve profile helps explain the gap. Double faults are projected at 2.3 for Ruud and 2.1 for Jodar.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Casper Ruud 6.4 + Rafael Jodar 4.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Casper Ruud 2.3 + Rafael Jodar 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Casper Ruud

Expected 6.4 aces

Rafael Jodar

Expected 4.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Casper Ruud

Expected 2.3 double faults

Rafael Jodar

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Casper Ruud's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (35.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s serve is his strongest way to overturn the forecast. If he maintains the advantage suggested by his ace projection, he can make Jodar work harder to convert his overall edge.

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