Almaty Almaty Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
70%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #19
30%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.7 Daniil Medvedev
Recent record by level +5.8 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +3.4 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +1.6 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +1.1 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-10-20

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #19 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #11 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #11 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #10 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 58.0
ELO Rating: 1939.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1920.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 127.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.5
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 91.1

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 54.6
ELO Rating: 1819.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1825.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 147.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.3
Clay: 29.3
Grass: 36.1
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is favored to win, at 70% against Bublik’s 30%. The projection is for 25.6 games, pointing to a match that could be competitive in length.

Match Analysis

The main separation is in the serve-and-return balance. Medvedev is stronger in both areas, with the clearer advantage on return, which gives him more opportunity to pressure Bublik’s service games. Medvedev has won his two Almaty matches in straight sets, against Sho Shimabukuro and Terence Atmane. Bublik’s hard-court profile is weaker, though he comes off a three-set win over Karen Khachanov and has the serving power to keep sets close.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Bublik) +1.7 Most likely spread: +1 (Daniil Medvedev wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected to hit 9.2 aces and 3.4 double faults, while Bublik is projected for 10.4 aces and 3.4 double faults. Both have strong serve profiles, but Bublik’s higher expected ace count reflects his greater potential to earn points directly off the serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.9 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 9.2 + Alexander Bublik 10.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.4 + Alexander Bublik 3.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 9.2 aces

Alexander Bublik

Expected 10.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.4 double faults

Alexander Bublik

Expected 3.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (39.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s serve is the clearest way to disrupt the forecast. If he keeps Medvedev from gaining a regular foothold on return, his ace potential could make the difference in a close match.

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