Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
32%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
68%
Expected Total Games: 22.2
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +11.2 Carlos Alcaraz
Surface fit +7.9 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent form +3.1 Daniil Medvedev
Age +1.9 Carlos Alcaraz
Serve & return game +1.4 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-10-27

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #3 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #2 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #1 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 61.6
ELO Rating: 1978.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1938.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 333.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.4
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 91.2

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 53.6
ELO Rating: 2242.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2612.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 334.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 59.8
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Carlos Alcaraz is favoured at 68%, with Daniil Medvedev at 32%, and the match is projected to last 22.2 games. The Vienna Semifinals forecast gives Alcaraz a clear advantage, though Medvedev’s current form keeps the contest from looking one-sided.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz’s stronger overall level and better fit on hard courts are the main separators. He is ranked third to Medvedev’s fifth, and his stronger hard-court profile gives him a solid foundation on this surface. Recent form leans Medvedev: he has won all three of his Vienna matches, including a three-set win over Cameron Norrie. Alcaraz has been even more decisive, winning all three in straight sets, most recently against Tommy Paul. Medvedev’s slight serving advantage offers a counter, while Alcaraz has the better return profile.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.2 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Carlos Alcaraz) -3.3 Most likely spread: -4 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected for 6.6 aces and 2.8 double faults, compared with 4.7 aces and 2.3 double faults for Alcaraz. Medvedev’s marginal serve advantage helps explain the projected ace gap, though both have similar serve levels on this hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 6.6 + Carlos Alcaraz 4.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 2.8 + Carlos Alcaraz 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 6.6 aces

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 4.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 2.8 double faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

29.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (45.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s serve is his strongest chance to spring an upset. If it consistently gives him control of points, his strong recent form could matter more than Alcaraz’s surface advantage.

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