Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #11
72%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #53
28%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #11 2026-03-02
  • 3 mo ago #13 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #13 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #11 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-03-03

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #53 2026-03-02
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #38 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #34 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 59.7
ELO Rating: 2469.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1995.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.5
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 21.7
Serve Rating: 75.2
Return Rating: 53.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 57.0
ELO Rating: 1257.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1683.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 147.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.4
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 93.6

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Sebastian Baez
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Indian Wells, CA — Round of 32 on hard courts in a Masters 1000 event sets up a contrast in styles as Daniil Medvedev meets Sebastian Baez. The model prefers Medvedev to advance (72.38% chance) over Baez (27.62%), with a predicted total of about 22.5 games in the match, pointing toward a relatively quick, two-set affair.

Match Analysis

Medvedev arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 11) with an Elo of 2469.7 and a form index of 59.7. He has accumulated 70 minutes on court in this event so far. His surface strength index on hard is 13.45 and his mean serve index is 75.22; his mean return index sits at 53.93. Baez is ranked 53 with an Elo of 1257.6 and a similar form index (57.03) but carries heavier tournament fatigue (147 minutes). His surface strength index is 9.36. Notably, Baez posts a much higher mean serve index (97.25 vs 75.22) and a far stronger mean return index (93.61 vs 53.93) — both differences exceed 5 points and are significant in the matchup assessment. Recent form underlines Medvedev’s consistency: three straight wins on hard (including victories in Dubai and a first-round win at Indian Wells), all in straight sets and relatively short matches. Baez has won his two most recent matches at Indian Wells in straight sets but his prior result was a loss on clay; his heavier minutes this week elevate the fatigue question.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Daniil Medvedev wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total, while the expected double faults total is 6.37. On a medium-paced hard court that generally yields a balanced serve-return exchange, the predicted aces reflect a modest tally rather than an onslaught. Given Baez’s markedly higher serve index, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces, but the expected double faults number suggests both players will be somewhat error-prone on second serves.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s superior Elo, higher seeding and recent straight-set consistency give him the edge despite Baez’s impressive serve/return indices on paper. The key factor to watch is how Baez’s serving firepower translates into free points against Medvedev’s strong baseline retrieval and match experience; that interplay will decide whether this becomes tight or follows the model’s projected quick finish.

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