Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Sho Shimabukuro Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
79%
VS

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #109
21%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.8 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +8.1 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +6.6 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +2.5 Daniil Medvedev
Overall record & opposition quality +1.4 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 79% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-10-20

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Current #109 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #97 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #108 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #144 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #195 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 48.5
ELO Rating: 1931.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1916.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.7
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.0

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 16.8
ELO Rating: 1469.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1589.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 128.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.3
Clay: 12.9
Grass: 10.2
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Sho Shimabukuro
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Sho Shimabukuro
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is a clear favorite in this Round of 16, with a 79% win probability to Shimabukuro’s 21%. The forecast calls for 23.5 total games, leaving room for a competitive stretch despite the gap in win chances.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is experience and level: Medvedev is ranked fifth, compared with Shimabukuro at 109, and has the stronger record against higher-level opposition. His recent hard-court wins over Tommy Paul and Stefanos Tsitsipas underline that quality, although he most recently lost to Rafael Jodar in Shanghai. Medvedev also has the advantage in serving and returning, particularly on return, which should help him make more of Shimabukuro’s service games demanding. Shimabukuro arrives with a useful win over Roman Safiullin in Almaty, but his weaker recent results and hard-court record leave less margin for error.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Sho Shimabukuro) +3.5 Most likely spread: +4 (Daniil Medvedev wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected for 8.2 aces and 3.8 double faults, while Shimabukuro is forecast for 4.2 aces and 3.1 double faults. Their serve strengths are fairly close, but Medvedev’s higher overall level and return advantage help explain the expected ace gap on hard courts.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 8.2 + Sho Shimabukuro 4.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.8 + Sho Shimabukuro 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 8.2 aces

Sho Shimabukuro

Expected 4.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.8 double faults

Sho Shimabukuro

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

31.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (57.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shimabukuro’s serve is close to Medvedev’s in the underlying comparison. If it earns him enough free points to limit Medvedev’s return opportunities, the upset becomes more plausible.

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