Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
61%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #42
39%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 42.3
ELO Rating: 4062.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 107.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.7
Clay: 30.0
Grass: 31.1
Serve Rating: 81.1
Return Rating: 37.0

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 59.7
ELO Rating: 1214.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1738.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 247.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 12.6
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 92.9

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Arthur Fils

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
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Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Arthur Fils meet in the Montpellier quarterfinals on indoor hard courts at an ATP 250 event in France. The model favors Felix Auger-Aliassime to progress (60.77% win probability) over Arthur Fils (39.23%), with a predicted total of about 23.84 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Auger-Aliassime arrives ranked No. 8 with an Elo of ~4062, a form index of 42.26 and cumulative tournament court time of 107 minutes. His surface strength is 26.72 and his mean serve index is 81.12 versus a mean return index of 36.99. Fils is ranked 42 with an Elo near 1215, a higher form index of 59.72 but substantially more fatigue at 247 minutes. His surface strength sits at 12.19 while his mean serve index (97.24) and mean return index (92.94) are both markedly higher than Auger-Aliassime’s — differences large enough to note and likely to shape key exchanges. Recent results show Auger-Aliassime won his last match in Montpellier in straight sets over Stan Wawrinka but had earlier exits at the Australian Open and Paris. Fils has been sharper through this event, winning two matches in Montpellier (including a longer 152-minute encounter) after a three-set loss to Jiri Lehecka in Toronto. The contrast is clear: Auger-Aliassime offers higher ranking and Elo consistency, while Fils brings stronger recent form and far superior serve and return indices, albeit with heavier minutes already logged.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Arthur Fils. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Arthur Fils. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Arthur Fils) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Arthur Fils. Positive values indicate Felix Auger-Aliassime winning more games, negative values indicate Arthur Fils winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is modest: predicted aces are 8.89 for the match, reflecting a hard surface that produces a balanced number of outright serves. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of 6.37; serve placement and fatigue could push that number. Given Fils’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces, while accumulated minutes may inflate the double faults for either player.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Arthur Fils. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Arthur Fils. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s edge comes from a superior ranking and Elo advantage combined with fresher legs and solid serving. The match will turn on whether Fils’s elite serve and return metrics can overcome his fatigue and Auger-Aliassime’s overall consistency; Fils’s serving performance is the key factor to watch.

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