Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #5
66%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #55
34%
Expected Total Games: 28.5
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #5 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #5 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-05-19

Vit Kopriva

  • Current #55 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #87 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #102 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #87 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #85 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 1776.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1898.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.6
Clay: 27.5
Grass: 30.4
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 89.2

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 43.5
ELO Rating: 1666.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1705.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 23.0
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Vit Kopriva
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Hamburg, Germany, at a 500-level clay event, Felix Auger-Aliassime meets Vit Kopriva in the round of 32. The model projects Auger-Aliassime to win (66.09% chance) against Kopriva (33.91%), with a relatively short match expected — about 28.49 total games.

Match Analysis

Felix arrives as the clear ranking favorite (No. 5 vs No. 55) and carries the higher Elo (1776.4 to 1666.4). His form index (35.35) is lower than Kopriva’s (43.54) but both players show zero tournament fatigue entering this match. On clay their surface strength indexes are modest — 27.54 for Felix and 23.01 for Kopriva — suggesting neither is a clay specialist here. Auger-Aliassime’s mean serve index (96.80) and mean return index (89.19) are fractionally higher than Kopriva’s (serve 94.33, return 88.46), but not by a margin that changes the matchup narrative dramatically. Recent results underline the gap in consistency: Felix has one win and two losses across his last three clay matches, including back-to-back defeats in Madrid and Rome before a lone win earlier in Madrid. Kopriva likewise went 1-2 in form, with a notable win over Fabian Marozsan sandwiched between losses to Ugo Humbert and Rafael Jodar. Both have been tested on clay lately, but Auger-Aliassime’s higher ranking and Elo reflect a broader season-level advantage that tilts expectations in his favor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.5 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Vit Kopriva) +1.8 Most likely spread: +1 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at 10.71 total; the predicted aces figure reflects Felix’s slightly superior serving metrics but also the damping effect of clay. Expected double faults are 4.92 for the match — a modest total, though clay’s longer rallies can produce more late-match errors. Given the surface and the close serve ratings, predicted aces and expected double faults should cluster around these moderate numbers rather than spiking.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.7 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Felix Auger-Aliassime's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (45.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s higher rank, superior Elo and overall serve/return profile give him the edge in Hamburg. Watch the early breaks and return games — if Kopriva cannot generate pressure on Felix’s serve, the match is likely to stay short.

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