Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Finals

Andrey Rublev vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #17
59%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #34
41%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Ranking Trends

Andrey Rublev

  • Current Rank: #17 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #10 (2025-02-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2024-11-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #6 (2024-08-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2024-05-20)

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current Rank: #34 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #40 (2025-02-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #32 (2024-11-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #31 (2024-08-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #56 (2024-05-20)

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 62.1
ELO Rating: 2441.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1904.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 389.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.4
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 28.0
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 87.5

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 65.4
ELO Rating: 1255.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 514.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 11.8
Grass: 12.2
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-0) clay Hamburg 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) clay Hamburg 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Justin Engel (2-0) clay Hamburg 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) clay Hamburg 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) clay Rome 142 min

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-1) clay Hamburg 167 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) clay Hamburg 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) clay Hamburg 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vitaliy Sachko (2-1) clay Hamburg 157 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Luca Nardi (0-2) clay Rome 88 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrey Rublev
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the finals of the Hamburg tournament, taking place on clay in Germany, Andrey Rublev is set to face Flavio Cobolli. The match, part of the ATP 500 series, sees Rublev as the predicted winner, holding a probability of 59.30% compared to Cobolli's 40.70%. The expected total number of games played in this encounter is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Rublev, currently ranked 17, holds a form index of 62.06 and an Elo rating of 2441.76, indicating solid performance levels. His cumulative fatigue stands at 389.0 minutes, which is relatively manageable at this stage of the tournament. With a surface strength index of 23.10, Rublev demonstrates a strong proficiency on clay. His mean serve index of 98.18 surpasses Cobolli's mean serve index of 95.75 by over 5 points, giving him an advantage in serving effectiveness. Additionally, Rublev’s mean return index of 87.52 is slightly lower than Cobolli's 88.34, highlighting Cobolli's edge in return ability. Flavio Cobolli, ranked 34, showcases a slightly better form index of 65.43 but has a significantly lower Elo rating of 1255.65. His higher cumulative fatigue of 514.0 minutes indicates he has spent more time on court during the tournament. Cobolli has shown resilience in his last three matches, defeating opponents such as Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Roberto Bautista Agut, both in competitive encounters. His form suggests he is capable of pushing Rublev, but he will need to manage his fatigue effectively.

Final Prediction

Andrey Rublev's higher Elo rating and superior serving capabilities provide him with a crucial edge going into this final. The ability to serve effectively on clay could significantly impact the outcome of rallies. A key factor to observe will be how well Cobolli handles Rublev’s powerful serve and whether he can capitalize on his return game.