Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Flavio Cobolli vs Grigor Dimitrov Prediction

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #6
71%
VS

Grigor Dimitrov

Rank: #124
29%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Why the Model Favors Flavio Cobolli

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.1 Flavio Cobolli
Age +5.0 Flavio Cobolli
Overall strength +4.9 Flavio Cobolli
Surface fit +3.3 Flavio Cobolli
Recent form +3.1 Flavio Cobolli

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for Flavio Cobolli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #6 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #13 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #22 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #23 2025-10-27

Grigor Dimitrov

  • Current #124 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #140 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #137 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #45 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #38 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 40.1
ELO Rating: 1808.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1835.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.7
Clay: 37.7
Grass: 33.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.4

Grigor Dimitrov

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1626.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1629.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.7
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 25.8
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Grigor Dimitrov
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Grigor Dimitrov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cobolli is favored at 71% to 29%, giving him a clear advantage over Dimitrov. The expected total is 25.2 games.

Match Analysis

Cobolli’s recent hard-court run included wins over Brandon Nakashima and Stan Wawrinka, before Lorenzo Musetti beat him in his latest match. Dimitrov’s recent US Open sequence also ended in defeat, to Alexei Popyrin, after wins over Timofey Skatov and Lorenzo Giustino. The broader comparison favors Cobolli: he is ranked sixth, while Dimitrov is 124th, and Cobolli is the stronger returner with the better hard-court profile. That combination should help him put Dimitrov’s service games under more pressure. Dimitrov’s serve remains a threat, but he may need it to do more of the work against Cobolli’s stronger overall level.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Grigor Dimitrov) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Flavio Cobolli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Cobolli is projected for 5.9 aces and 2.9 double faults, while Dimitrov is forecast to hit 7.3 aces and 4.0 double faults. Their serve levels are close, but Dimitrov is expected to find more aces, with Cobolli’s stronger return a potential counterweight.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Flavio Cobolli 5.9 + Grigor Dimitrov 7.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Flavio Cobolli 2.9 + Grigor Dimitrov 4.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 5.9 aces

Grigor Dimitrov

Expected 7.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 2.9 double faults

Grigor Dimitrov

Expected 4.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (36.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Dimitrov’s serving is his best chance to turn the forecast around. If he can use it to keep Cobolli from applying sustained return pressure, his ace advantage could make the gap between them less decisive.

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