Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Frances Tiafoe vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #12
60%
VS

Roberto Carballes Baena

Rank: #89
40%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current Rank: #12 (2025-07-28)
  • 3 Months Ago: #16 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #18 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #18 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2024-08-12)

Roberto Carballes Baena

  • Current Rank: #89 (2025-07-28)
  • 3 Months Ago: #59 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #51 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #56 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #55 (2024-08-12)

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 52.2
ELO Rating: 1548.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1707.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 19.7
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.8

Roberto Carballes Baena

Form Index: 41.8
ELO Rating: 910.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 154.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) hard Toronto 144 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-1) hard Toronto 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yosuke Watanuki (2-1) hard Toronto 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Washington 117 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Washington 72 min

Roberto Carballes Baena
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-1) hard Cincinnati 154 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Toronto 151 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Toronto 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (0-2) clay Umag 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Comesana (0-2) clay Gstaad 73 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Roberto Carballes Baena
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Frances Tiafoe and Roberto Carballes Baena takes place in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 tournament, held on hard courts. Frances Tiafoe is predicted to emerge victorious, with a win probability of 60.27%, while Roberto Carballes Baena has a 39.73% chance of winning. The match is expected to involve approximately 23 games in total.

Match Analysis

Frances Tiafoe, currently ranked 12th, boasts a higher form index of 52.21 compared to Carballes Baena's 41.80, indicating a better recent performance. Tiafoe's Elo rating stands at 1548, significantly higher than Carballes Baena’s 910. This disparity in ranking and Elo rating suggests that Tiafoe has been more consistently competitive at higher levels. While Tiafoe enters the match without cumulative fatigue, Carballes Baena comes off a recent match with 154 minutes on court, which may impact his performance. In terms of serving ability, Tiafoe has a mean serve index of 97.13, compared to Carballes Baena's 94.91, reflecting a solid advantage for Tiafoe. Furthermore, Tiafoe's mean return index of 86.76 is marginally lower than Carballes Baena’s 87.57, but the difference is not substantial enough to indicate a clear edge for either player in return capabilities. Over their last three matches, Tiafoe has shown resilience despite a recent loss, while Carballes Baena has mixed results, with one win against Hugo Gaston but a challenging loss to Taylor Fritz.

Final Prediction

Frances Tiafoe's higher ranking, superior recent form, and lack of fatigue provide him with a decisive edge going into the match. A key factor to observe will be Tiafoe's serving performance, as his ability to maintain a strong serve could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.