Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s probability split is driven first by the serve & return game (which shifts 9.4 percentage points toward Hurkacz), while Rublev gains ground from overall strength (+7.1) and surface fit (+6.9). Recent-record-by-level nudges Hurkacz another +6.6, and recent form adds +3.3 to Rublev — together these push the contest to a very tight projection. Looking at the numbers, Rublev holds the clear Elo and ranking advantages (rank 13, Elo 1825 vs Hurkacz rank 103, Elo 1579) and a stronger surface strength index on grass (30.52 vs 10.72). Rublev’s form index is higher (45.65 vs 31.52) and neither player carries tournament fatigue into this match (0 minutes). Serve and return metrics are pivotal here. Both players register almost identical mean serve indexes (95.88 vs 95.61; difference <5), so the serving power edge is neutral on paper, but Rublev’s mean return index is markedly higher (92.69 vs 82.04), a gap the returning player can exploit on quick grass points. Over their last three matches Rublev posted two wins at Roland Garros before a five-set loss in his most recent outing; Hurkacz won one of his last three and lost the other two, including a recent grass defeat at s‑Hertogenbosch.