Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Hugo Gaston vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #78
47%
VS

Nicolas Jarry

Rank: #53
53%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Nicolas Jarry

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Ranking Trends

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #78 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #83 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #81 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #60 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #96 2024-05-06

Nicolas Jarry

  • Current #53 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #38 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #36 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #24 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #24 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 40.5
ELO Rating: 710.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 7.2
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.6

Nicolas Jarry

Form Index: 28.6
ELO Rating: 1140.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1655.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.8
Clay: 9.9
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 84.9

Recent Matches

Hugo Gaston
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Nicolas Jarry
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hugo Gaston
vs
0
Nicolas Jarry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The clash between Hugo Gaston and Nicolas Jarry in the Round of 128 at the Masters 1000 event in Rome promises to be an engaging encounter on clay. Given the statistics, Nicolas Jarry is favored to win, with a probability of 53.14% compared to Gaston's 46.86%. The match is predicted to feature around 23 games.

Match Analysis

Hugo Gaston, currently ranked 78, comes into the match with a form index of 40.54 and an Elo rating of 710.74. His surface strength index is 7.17, indicating a moderate proficiency on clay. Notably, Gaston has a mean serve index of 96.65 and a mean return index of 89.64, suggesting a solid serving performance but slightly less effectiveness in returns. In his recent matches, Gaston has displayed mixed results; he won against Luca Nardi and Yannick Hanfmann but suffered a defeat against Sebastian Ofner, showing inconsistency. On the other hand, Nicolas Jarry holds a higher rank of 53, with a form index of 28.58 and a significantly better Elo rating of 1140.18. His surface strength index is 9.88, indicating a stronger performance on clay compared to Gaston. Jarry's mean serve index is close to Gaston's at 96.32, but his mean return index of 84.88 shows a slightly lower capability in returns. Jarry's recent form has also been inconsistent; he lost to Grigor Dimitrov but secured a victory against Daniel Altmaier, indicating he is still competitive despite fluctuations in performance.

Final Prediction

Nicolas Jarry's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and stronger surface performance give him the edge in this matchup against Hugo Gaston. Key to watch will be the effectiveness of Jarry's serve and whether he can capitalize on any weaknesses in Gaston's return game to dictate play from the outset.

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