Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #62
27%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #28
73%
Expected Total Games: 28.4
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Ranking Trends

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #62 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #91 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #105 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #136 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #177 2025-05-19

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #28 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 52.4
ELO Rating: 1642.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1684.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 231.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.2
Clay: 18.4
Grass: 6.6
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 93.5

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 40.1
ELO Rating: 1794.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1869.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 89.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 26.4
Grass: 21.5
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Ignacio Buse
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) clay Hamburg 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) clay Hamburg 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Niels McDonald (2-0) clay Hamburg 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) clay Rome 163 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) clay Rome 101 min

Jakub Mensik
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ignacio Buse
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Hamburg’s round of 16 on clay at the 500-level event, Jakub Mensik is favoured to progress against Ignacio Buse. The model gives Mensik a 73.48% chance of winning versus 26.52% for Buse, with an expected total of about 28.41 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Mensik arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 28) with an Elo of 1794.5, while Buse is No. 62 with an Elo of 1642.8. Buse carries the better recent form index (52.38) compared with Mensik’s 40.15, but fatigue is a clear contrast: Buse has logged 231 minutes on court this week versus Mensik’s 89, which could matter on demanding clay. Surface strength favors Mensik modestly (26.36 vs 18.39), suggesting he is slightly more comfortable on clay. Their mean serve indices are nearly identical (95.58 vs 95.34), so neither should dominate purely on serve power; however Buse’s mean return index (93.52) is materially higher than Mensik’s (85.68), a difference worth noting for break opportunities. Form over the last three matches tells a complementary story. Buse has cruised through Hamburg with three straight wins in straight sets (McDonald, Gaston, Cobolli), showing match rhythm on clay. Mensik’s recent slate includes a solid straight-sets win over Jan-Lennard Struff in Hamburg but earlier losses in Rome and Madrid to Popyrin and Zverev; those longer, tougher matches may explain his lower form index but he remains the fresher player overall.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.4 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ignacio Buse - Jakub Mensik) -2.6 Most likely spread: -3 (Jakub Mensik wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is moderate: predicted aces total about 13.74. Expected double faults sit at 5.12. Clay’s slower, high-bouncing characteristics typically reduce ace rates and can increase mistakes as rallies and fatigue accumulate, which aligns with the relatively modest predicted aces and non-trivial double faults prediction. Neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating, so huge discrepancies in ace count driven by serve alone are unlikely.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.7 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ignacio Buse's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (43.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s combination of higher ranking, stronger Elo and substantially lower fatigue gives him the edge in this projected outcome. The key factor to watch is Buse’s return prowess against a fresher Mensik—if Buse can convert early break chances without succumbing to fatigue-driven errors, he remains dangerous despite the long odds.

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