Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Jack Draper vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Jack Draper

Rank: #5
33%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
67%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Jack Draper

  • Current #5 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #16 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #15 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #28 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #40 2024-05-06

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #3 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Jack Draper

Form Index: 61.7
ELO Rating: 2752.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1687.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 319.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 23.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 87.5

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 64.6
ELO Rating: 6405.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2356.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 333.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.3
Clay: 61.5
Grass: 62.0
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Jack Draper
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) clay Rome 148 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Laslo Djere (2-0) clay Rome 103 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (2-0) clay Rome 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (0-2) clay Barcelona 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) clay Barcelona 75 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Jack Draper
vs
1
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinal match between Jack Draper and Carlos Alcaraz at the Rome Masters (2025) is set to be an exciting clash on clay. Alcaraz is favored to win with a probability of 67.35%, while Draper has a 32.65% chance of success. The predicted total number of games played is 22.0, indicating a potentially competitive match.

Match Analysis

Jack Draper, currently ranked 5th, has a form index of 61.72 and an Elo rating of 2752.66. His fatigue level stands at 319 minutes, which may impact his performance. Draper's surface strength index is relatively low at 20.92, especially when compared to Alcaraz's impressive 61.49. Draper possesses a mean serve index of 97.39, which is significantly stronger than Alcaraz's 95.14. However, Alcaraz has a slight edge in mean return index at 88.11 compared to Draper's 87.54, albeit the difference is marginal. Carlos Alcaraz is ranked 3rd and has shown consistent form with a form index of 64.58 and a high Elo rating of 6405.20. His fatigue level is slightly higher than Draper's at 333 minutes, but this is offset by his superior surface strength index. In their last three matches, both players have demonstrated strong performances; Draper won against Corentin Moutet, Vit Kopriva, and Luciano Darderi, dropping only one set in the process. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has also been dominant, winning all his matches against Khachanov, Djere, and Lajovic, with just one set lost in his latest match.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's higher rank, better surface strength index, and slightly superior recent performance give him a clear advantage over Jack Draper. A key factor to monitor will be how both players manage their fatigue levels, as it could influence their endurance and decision-making throughout the match.

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