Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Jannik Sinner vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
76%
VS

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #10
24%
Predicted Games Played: 33.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 80.8
ELO Rating: 11319.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2169.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 98.9
Clay: 97.8
Grass: 98.9
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 89.2

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 65.6
ELO Rating: 2389.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1722.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 24.0
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner

  • Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-1) hard Cincinnati 23 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Cincinnati 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-0) hard Cincinnati 71 min

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs David Goffin (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Cincinnati 166 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Toronto 151 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Toronto 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jannik Sinner
vs
0
Lorenzo Musetti
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinals of the 2025 US Open takes place in New York on hard courts, featuring a highly anticipated match between Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti. Jannik Sinner is favored to win with a probability of 75.85%, while Lorenzo Musetti holds a 24.15% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is 33.0.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner, currently ranked 1, exhibits a strong form index of 80.78 and an impressive Elo rating of 11319.28. His fatigue level from the tournament stands at 348 minutes, but he maintains a remarkable surface strength index of 98.88, indicating his proficiency on hard courts. Sinner's mean serve index of 97.60 and mean return index of 89.18 suggest a significant advantage, especially with a serve index difference greater than 5 points compared to Musetti. In contrast, Musetti, ranked 10, has a form index of 65.64 and an Elo rating of 2389.61, along with a similar fatigue level of 348 minutes. His surface strength index is notably lower at 12.95, and while his mean serve index is respectable at 95.37, he trails in return performance with a mean return index of 88.28, which is less than a 5-point difference. Both players have shown strong recent performances, with Sinner winning his last two matches convincingly against Alexei Popyrin and Denis Shapovalov, while losing only one set in the process. Musetti has also been dominant, winning his last two matches against Flavio Cobolli and David Goffin without dropping a set. However, Sinner’s recent form and overall statistics provide a clearer indication of his readiness for this crucial encounter.

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's edge comes from his superior rankings, form, and serving capabilities, particularly on hard courts, which enhances his chances against Musetti. A key factor to watch will be Sinner's ability to maintain his serving efficiency, which could dictate the flow of the match and potentially lead to a decisive victory.