Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
95%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #50
5%
Expected Total Games: 34.2
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Why the Model Favors Jannik Sinner

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +18.8 Jannik Sinner
Recent record by level +10.0 Jannik Sinner
Surface fit +7.0 Jannik Sinner
Serve & return game +6.3 Jannik Sinner
Overall record & opposition quality +3.6 Jannik Sinner

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 95% for Jannik Sinner. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #1 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #2 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-06-30

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #50 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #58 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #51 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #47 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #49 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 38.3
ELO Rating: 2423.4
Glicko2 Rating: 2610.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 77.8
Clay: 85.3
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 98.4
Return Rating: 97.8

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 36.6
ELO Rating: 1575.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1590.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.2
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 16.0
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Miomir Kecmanovic
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (0-2) grass Mallorca 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-1) grass Mallorca 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Antoine Ghibaudo (2-1) grass Mallorca 139 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) grass Halle 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jannik Sinner
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Wimbledon in Great Britain, Round of 128 on grass in a grand slam setting, the model strongly favors Jannik Sinner. The predicted winner is Jannik Sinner (95.23%); Miomir Kecmanovic is assigned a 4.77% chance. The match is expected to contain about 34.21 games in total.

Match Analysis

The model’s advantage for Sinner stems primarily from his overall strength (18.8 percentage points) and recent record by level (10.0 points), with additional support from surface fit (7.0), serve & return metrics (6.3) and overall record vs. opposition quality (3.6). Those drivers show up clearly in the raw numbers: Sinner sits at world No. 1 with an Elo of 2,423.44 and a very high form index (38.30) and a surface strength index of 100.0. Kecmanovic is ranked 50th, with a much lower Elo (1,574.98), form index 36.61 and a surface strength index of 16.04 — a marked gap on the surface metric that favors Sinner on grass according to the data. Both players arrive fresh with zero cumulative tournament fatigue. Sinner’s mean serve and return indices are 98.37 and 97.82 respectively; Kecmanovic posts 95.97 (serve) and 87.94 (return). The mean return index difference (>5 points) is notable and favors Sinner’s ability to neutralize service holds. Recent form: Sinner is 2–1 in his last three (including a long five-set loss at Roland Garros), while Kecmanovic is 2–1 coming through Mallorca on grass, with a recent straight-sets loss to Fabian Marozsan.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 34.2 Most likely outcome: 34 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jannik Sinner - Miomir Kecmanovic) +8.2 Most likely spread: +8 (Jannik Sinner wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 17.04 total; the predicted aces and expected double faults (6.2) reflect grass being the fastest surface and typically boosting ace counts. While Sinner’s serve index is slightly higher, the difference is under 5 points, so a single-player serve dominance is not expected to dramatically skew the predicted aces; Sinner’s superior return rating, however, could limit Kecmanovic’s serving reward.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.0 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jannik Sinner's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (71.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sinner’s edge comes above all from overall strength in the numbers — his top rank and Elo drive the forecast. The key factor to watch on Sunday will be Sinner’s return game and how effectively it can disrupt Kecmanovic’s service rhythm on the quick grass.

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