Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fonseca arrives with a higher tour ranking (31) but a lower Elo (1,780) than Jodar (Elo 1,835, rank 42). His form index is a solid 62.4 versus Jodar’s 96.5, indicating Jodar has been playing very well recently despite being lower-ranked. Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Fonseca shows 0 minutes on court in this event, while Jodar carries 226 minutes of cumulative court time, which could matter deep into rallies on slow clay. Both players show similar surface strength (≈44), so neither has a decisive clay-court advantage on paper. Serving and returning profiles diverge sharply. Jodar’s mean serve index (96.6) towers over Fonseca’s (71.0) by more than 25 points, and his mean return index (89.3) is likewise substantially higher than Fonseca’s (68.2). Those gaps suggest Jodar can dominate quick points on serve and apply pressure on returns, but his heavy workload in Madrid could blunt that edge. Over the last three matches Fonseca won two of three in Munich before a three-set loss to Ben Shelton; his recent clay results show consistency. Jodar is 2-1 in his last three, with straight-set wins in Madrid including a victory over Alex de Minaur and a long 151-minute match versus Jesper De Jong.