Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Karen Khachanov vs Alex De Minaur Prediction

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #14
72%
VS

Alex De Minaur

Rank: #1000
28%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current Rank: #14 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #16 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #25 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #20 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #21 (2024-10-28)

Alex De Minaur

  • Current Rank: #1000 (None)
  • 3 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1000 (None)

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 29.6
ELO Rating: 1620.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1740.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 110.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 18.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 85.8

Alex De Minaur

Form Index: 47.0
ELO Rating: 448.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1732.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 157.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.3
Clay: 0.8
Grass: 0.2
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) hard Paris 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (1-2) hard Vienna 123 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (1-2) hard Almaty 139 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Juncheng Shang (0-2) hard Shanghai 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (1-2) hard Beijing 168 min

Alex De Minaur
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Paris 157 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Shanghai 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-1) hard Beijing 136 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Beijing 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Toronto 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Alex De Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Paris, Karen Khachanov faces Alex De Minaur on hard courts. Khachanov is the favored player with a win probability of 72.15%, while De Minaur's chances stand at 27.85%. The anticipated total number of games in this match is estimated at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Karen Khachanov, currently ranked 14th, boasts a solid form index of 29.60 and an Elo rating of 1620.27. His cumulative fatigue from the current tournament is at 110 minutes, indicating a manageable level of exertion. His surface strength index is relatively high at 13.26, and he has a mean serve index of 96.84, compared to De Minaur's 96.11. This gives Khachanov a slight edge in serving effectiveness. Additionally, Khachanov’s mean return index of 85.77 is comparable to De Minaur’s 85.84, indicating that both players are equally adept at returning serves. De Minaur, on the other hand, is ranked 1000th, with a form index of 47.04 and an Elo rating of 448.39, which reflects a significant gap in performance metrics compared to Khachanov. He has a higher cumulative fatigue level of 157 minutes, which may hinder his performance. In his recent matches, De Minaur managed to secure a win against Gabriel Diallo but faced a loss to Daniil Medvedev. Conversely, Khachanov’s recent performances have been mixed, with one win against Joao Fonseca after two consecutive losses, suggesting he is battling his own inconsistency.

Final Prediction

Karen Khachanov appears to have a significant advantage in this matchup, primarily due to his higher ranking, better recent form, and superior metrics in serve effectiveness. A key factor to watch will be how Khachanov manages his fatigue and whether he can maintain his serving prowess against De Minaur.