Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Khachanov comes mainly from recent record by level and surface fit, with additional weight from serve and return metrics and overall strength. Khachanov’s higher Elo and slightly better surface strength give him the baseline advantage. Khachanov is ranked 49 with an Elo of 1609.16, a surface strength index of 17.59, a mean serve index of 96.28, and a mean return index of 87.16. Burruchaga is ranked 59 with an Elo of 1576.34, a surface strength index of 6.04, a mean serve index of 95.27, and a mean return index of 92.57. Both players arrive with zero minutes of tournament fatigue. The mean return index gap is notable, with Burruchaga ahead by about 5.4 points, which helps explain the model nudging some probability toward Burruchaga on recent form. Recent form on paper is weak for both. Burruchaga has three straight losses, all coming as 3 set matches in Cincinnati, Toronto, and a clay outing in Estoril. Khachanov also comes in with three defeats, including a three set loss in Cincinnati and straight set losses in Toronto and Los Cabos. The model weights Khachanov’s results at comparable levels more heavily, accounting for the largest single factor in the prediction. Serve and return balance slightly favors Khachanov overall, while Burruchaga’s better return index is the most interesting matchup wrinkle.