Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Denis Shapovalov vs Learner Tien Prediction

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #28
54%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #67
46%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current Rank: #28 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #30 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #53 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #80 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #139 (2024-07-29)

Learner Tien

  • Current Rank: #67 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #69 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #80 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #125 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #242 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 59.0
ELO Rating: 1125.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1609.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.3
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.0

Learner Tien

Form Index: 56.5
ELO Rating: 1091.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1587.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 4.6
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) hard Los Cabos 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Los Cabos 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Los Cabos 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Govind Nanda (2-0) hard Los Cabos 60 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Learner Tien
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-0) hard Toronto 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Washington 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-0) hard Washington 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-0) hard Washington 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nicolas Jarry (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Denis Shapovalov is set to face Learner Tien on hard courts. With a slight edge, Shapovalov is predicted to win with a probability of 54.13%, while Tien's chances stand at 45.87%. The anticipated total number of games played in this matchup is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Denis Shapovalov currently holds the 28th rank, demonstrating a solid form index of 59.05 and an Elo rating of 1125.17. His fatigue level is at 0.0, suggesting he enters this match fresh and ready to compete. Shapovalov also boasts a significantly higher surface strength index of 14.29 compared to Tien's 9.23, highlighting his proficiency on hard courts. Furthermore, Shapovalov's mean serve index of 97.12 exceeds Tien's 94.63 by over 5 points, indicating a stronger serve, while the mean return index shows a lesser difference, with Shapovalov at 86.02 and Tien at 88.41, keeping the return game competitive. Learner Tien, ranked 67, has a form index of 56.53 and an Elo rating of 1091.02. His cumulative fatigue is notably higher at 91.0 minutes, which may impact his performance. Tien's recent results include a win against Colton Smith in the Toronto tournament and a mixed performance in Washington, where he lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina but secured a victory over Andrey Rublev. In contrast, Shapovalov has been in excellent form, winning all three of his latest matches convincingly without dropping a set.

Final Prediction

Denis Shapovalov's advantage comes from not only his superior ranking and fresh condition but also his stronger serving capabilities on hard courts. A key factor to monitor will be Tien's ability to handle Shapovalov's serve, which could determine the match's pace and outcome.

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