Metz France Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Matteo Berrettini vs Learner Tien Prediction

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #61
59%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #39
41%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #61 2025-10-27
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-08-04
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-05-05
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-02-03
  • 12 mo ago #35 2024-11-04

Learner Tien

  • Current #39 2025-10-27
  • 3 mo ago #55 2025-08-04
  • 6 mo ago #70 2025-05-05
  • 9 mo ago #81 2025-02-03
  • 12 mo ago #121 2024-11-04

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 56.1
ELO Rating: 1479.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1620.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 144.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 84.3

Learner Tien

Form Index: 56.8
ELO Rating: 1302.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1684.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 161.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.6
Clay: 4.6
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Metz 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Metz 63 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Vienna 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-1) hard Vienna 196 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Vienna 92 min

Learner Tien
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Berrettini
vs
0
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the Metz tournament held on hard courts, Matteo Berrettini is set to face Learner Tien. The prediction favors Berrettini as the winner, with a probability of 59.47% compared to Tien’s 40.53%. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Matteo Berrettini, currently ranked 61, has a form index of 56.12 and an Elo rating of 1479.58. He has shown resilience in this tournament with a cumulative fatigue of 144 minutes. His surface strength index stands at 13.05, while his mean serve index is significantly higher than Tien’s, at 98.31 compared to Tien's 94.72. This 3.59-point difference in serve strength could be a crucial factor in the match. Additionally, Berrettini's mean return index of 84.32 is slightly lower than Tien’s 87.73, but the overall balance in their performance metrics indicates that Berrettini's serving capabilities may give him the edge. On the other hand, Learner Tien is ranked 39 with a slightly higher form index of 56.83 and an Elo rating of 1302.26. Tien has accumulated more fatigue, totaling 161 minutes on court, which may impact his performance. In his last three matches, Tien has secured two convincing wins against Moez Echargui and Ugo Blanchet, both without dropping a set. However, his prior loss to Andrey Rublev may raise concerns about his consistency under pressure.

Final Prediction

Matteo Berrettini holds the advantage due to his superior serve index, which may enable him to dominate points and apply pressure on Tien. The key factor to watch will be Berrettini's ability to maintain his serve while managing fatigue, as this will likely determine the outcome of the match.

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