Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Francisco Comesana vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #59
30%
VS

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #9
70%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Comesana

  • Current #59 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #65 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #64 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #85 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #104 2024-09-30

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #9 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #7 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #16 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #17 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #18 2024-09-30

Player Metrics

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 49.2
ELO Rating: 945.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1578.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.1
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.9

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 58.0
ELO Rating: 2134.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1724.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.5
Clay: 24.0
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Francisco Comesana
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Lorenzo Musetti
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Comesana
vs
1
Lorenzo Musetti
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

The second round of the Shanghai Masters 1000 sees Francisco Comesana facing off against Lorenzo Musetti on hard courts in China. With Comesana ranked 59th and Musetti at 9th, the matchup heavily favors the latter, who is predicted to win with a probability of 70.14%. Conversely, Comesana's chances stand at 29.86%, and the match is expected to see a total of approximately 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti enters the match with a significantly higher Elo rating of 2134.18 compared to Francisco Comesana’s 945.42, indicating his superior performance level. Musetti's form index of 57.96 suggests he is in relatively good shape, while Comesana’s form index of 49.20 indicates some inconsistency. Additionally, Musetti boasts a surface strength index of 12.45, which surpasses Comesana’s index of 7.09, highlighting Musetti's adeptness on hard surfaces. Fatigue could play a role; Comesana has accumulated 91 minutes on court in the current tournament, whereas Musetti starts fresh with zero cumulative fatigue. In their recent performances, Comesana has had mixed results, winning two out of his last three matches, including a straight-sets victory against Ugo Blanchet in the opening round of Shanghai. However, he lost to Cameron Norrie in the US Open, which may impact his confidence. On the other hand, Musetti's recent record shows him winning against Adrian Mannarino, although he dropped his last match against Learner Tien, which may affect his momentum as well.

Final Prediction

Musetti's higher ranking, Elo rating, and superior statistics indicate he has the edge going into this match. A key factor to watch will be how Comesana handles Musetti's strong serving and returning capabilities, particularly if Musetti can leverage his fresh legs against Comesana's accumulated fatigue.

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