Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #5
66%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #35
34%
Expected Total Games: 38.5
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #5 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #8 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #7 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #11 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-01-13

Tomas Machac

  • Current #35 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #31 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #22 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #20 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 94.0
ELO Rating: 3862.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1766.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.1
Clay: 33.0
Grass: 31.8
Serve Rating: 72.3
Return Rating: 69.2

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 92.6
ELO Rating: 1504.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1703.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.5
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 10.8
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 92.0

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Tomas Machac
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Adelaide 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Adelaide 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Adelaide 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the 2026 Australian Open, Lorenzo Musetti is set to face Tomas Machac on hard courts in Australia. With Musetti holding a strong probability of winning at 65.72%, compared to Machac's 34.28%, the expected total games in the match are estimated at 38.55.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti, ranked 5th in the world, showcases impressive statistics with a form index of 93.99 and an Elo rating of 3862.19. His cumulative fatigue stands at 348 minutes, but he boasts a solid surface strength index of 23.10 and a mean serve index of 72.28. In contrast, Tomas Machac, ranked 35th, has a slightly lower form index of 92.60 and an Elo rating of 1504.39. Also at 348 minutes of cumulative fatigue, Machac possesses a higher mean serve index of 96.24 and a mean return index of 92.02, indicating his ability to serve effectively. The notable difference in the mean return index (22.75 points) favors Machac, suggesting he might challenge Musetti's serve more effectively. Both players have shown solid recent performances. Musetti has won two consecutive matches at this tournament, defeating Lorenzo Sonego and Raphael Collignon without dropping a set in the latter match. Machac has also been in fine form, winning against strong opponents like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Grigor Dimitrov, demonstrating resilience and capability on hard courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.5 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Lorenzo Musetti - Tomas Machac) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This match is expected to see around 16.88 aces, with both players capable of delivering strong serves on hard courts. The predicted aces reflect the medium-paced nature of this surface, which allows for a balanced performance between serving and returning. The expected double faults of 5.74 may arise, with both players needing to manage their power and precision effectively.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Musetti's higher ranking and form index give him a significant edge going into this match. However, it will be crucial to observe how Machac's superior serve and return capabilities affect the outcome, particularly in tight games.

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