Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Luciano Darderi vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #46
50%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #29
50%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current Rank: #46 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #61 (2025-02-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #44 (2024-11-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #38 (2024-08-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #47 (2024-05-20)

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current Rank: #29 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #41 (2025-02-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #38 (2024-11-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #48 (2024-08-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #68 (2024-05-20)

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 50.5
ELO Rating: 1172.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1576.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 69.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 86.5

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 44.4
ELO Rating: 1285.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1581.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 60.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 84.1

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Hamburg 69 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (0-2) clay Rome 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) clay Rome 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) clay Madrid 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) clay Madrid 73 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (1-0) clay Hamburg 60 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Rome 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (1-2) clay Madrid 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) clay Madrid 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-0) clay Madrid 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 matchup at the Hamburg tournament features Luciano Darderi facing off against Brandon Nakashima on clay. With both players having shown competitive form, the prediction favors Darderi, who has a slight edge with a 50.47% probability of winning compared to Nakashima's 49.53%. The projected total number of games played in this closely contested match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Luciano Darderi, currently ranked 46th, presents a strong performance index of 50.46, alongside an Elo rating of 1172.04. His cumulative fatigue of 69 minutes indicates he has been active but not excessively worn down in this tournament. Darderi's surface strength index stands at 10.24, and he boasts a mean serve index of 97.28, reflecting solid serving capabilities. In contrast, Brandon Nakashima, ranked 29th, has a form index of 44.42 and a higher Elo rating of 1285.74. His fatigue level is slightly lower at 60 minutes, and his surface strength index is marginally better at 11.16, though his mean serve index of 96.78 is within a 5-point difference compared to Darderi. In recent matches, Darderi has shown resilience, winning his last match against Diego Dedura convincingly after a loss to Jack Draper in Rome. His performance against Yunchaokete Bu also indicates his ability to rebound effectively. Meanwhile, Nakashima's recent form has been mixed, with a win against Raphael Collignon but losses against Lorenzo Musetti and Daniil Medvedev in previous tournaments. While both players have had ups and downs, Darderi’s recent victory and solid serve put him in a favorable position.

Final Prediction

Luciano Darderi's recent victory and slightly superior serving statistics provide him with the necessary edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Darderi's ability to capitalize on his serve, as a strong performance in this area could prove decisive against Nakashima's return game.