Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #23
52%
VS

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #36
48%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Why the Model Favors Luciano Darderi

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +2.4 Luciano Darderi
Surface fit +1.9 Luciano Darderi
Recent record by level +1.7 Matteo Arnaldi
Serve & return game +1.0 Luciano Darderi
Overall record & opposition quality +1.0 Matteo Arnaldi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Luciano Darderi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #23 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #22 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #25 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-10-27

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current #36 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #35 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #103 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #65 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #66 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 37.3
ELO Rating: 1724.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1773.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.3
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.5

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 33.1
ELO Rating: 1630.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1641.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.6
Clay: 34.2
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Matteo Arnaldi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Darderi is a narrow favourite, with the probabilities at 52% to 48% in his favour. The forecast points to a competitive match, with 25.7 games expected.

Match Analysis

Darderi’s stronger overall profile and better fit on hard courts are the main reasons for the slight lean. He also has a small advantage in serving and returning, giving him a stronger base on a surface that rewards both. Arnaldi’s counterweight is his recent record by level and the quality of opposition he has faced. His last two listed matches ended in losses to Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz, so that edge does not amount to a winning run. Darderi’s ranking is higher, but the model sees enough in Arnaldi’s recent level to keep the matchup close.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luciano Darderi - Matteo Arnaldi) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Darderi is projected for 6.9 aces and 2.8 double faults, compared with 7.4 aces and 3.0 double faults for Arnaldi. Their serve profiles are close, which fits the near-even ace projections, with Arnaldi only slightly ahead.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.9 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Luciano Darderi 6.9 + Matteo Arnaldi 7.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Luciano Darderi 2.8 + Matteo Arnaldi 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Luciano Darderi

Expected 6.9 aces

Matteo Arnaldi

Expected 7.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Luciano Darderi

Expected 2.8 double faults

Matteo Arnaldi

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luciano Darderi's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Arnaldi’s projected ace advantage gives him one possible way to turn the forecast around. If he gets more out of his serve, he can reduce the impact of Darderi’s stronger return profile.

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