Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Yoshihito Nishioka vs Luciano Darderi Prediction

Yoshihito Nishioka

Rank: #151
36%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #30
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Yoshihito Nishioka

  • Current #151 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #78 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #68 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #69 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #59 2024-09-23

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #30 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #56 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #61 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #44 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #42 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Yoshihito Nishioka

Form Index: 6.0
ELO Rating: 823.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 6.8
Grass: 7.5
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 86.3

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 49.5
ELO Rating: 1199.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1623.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Yoshihito Nishioka
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Luciano Darderi
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yoshihito Nishioka
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo, Japan, Yoshihito Nishioka faces off against Luciano Darderi on a hard court. The prediction favors Darderi, who has a win probability of 64.31%, compared to Nishioka's 35.69%. The anticipated total number of games played is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Yoshihito Nishioka is currently ranked 151, with a form index of 5.99 and an Elo rating of 823.10. His surface strength index is a respectable 7.95, but his mean serve index of 96.80 and return index of 86.28 indicate he may struggle against stronger opponents. Luciano Darderi, on the other hand, boasts a much higher rank of 30, an Elo rating of 1199.47, and a form index of 49.46. Both players have a similar surface strength index, but Darderi's mean serve index of 95.27 is slightly lower than Nishioka's, though the difference is not significant. However, their return index shows a minor gap, with Darderi at 85.87, which is still competitive. When reviewing their recent performances, Nishioka has faced a tough stretch, losing all three of his last matches, including a challenging bout against Frances Tiafoe at the US Open. Darderi, while also experiencing some defeats, secured a win against Eliot Spizzirri but struggled against top player Carlos Alcaraz. His recent matches indicate resilience, even in losses, which could give him a psychological edge in this upcoming clash.

Final Prediction

Luciano Darderi's higher ranking and Elo rating, alongside a more favorable recent performance, provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this match. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of Darderi's return game, particularly against Nishioka's serve, as it could dictate the flow of the match.

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