Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Semifinals

Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Casper Ruud

Rank: #25
71%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #44
29%
Expected Total Games: 24.8
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Casper Ruud

  • Current #25 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-05-19

Mariano Navone

  • Current #44 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #74 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #72 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #74 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1933.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1876.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 178.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.5
Clay: 46.0
Grass: 27.4
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 88.8

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 55.4
ELO Rating: 1710.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1755.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 276.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Mariano Navone
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
0
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Geneva semifinal on clay, Casper Ruud meets Mariano Navone for a spot in the final of this 250-level event in Switzerland. The model favors Ruud, projecting him to win with a 71.15% probability against Navone’s 28.85%, and forecasts a relatively short match of about 24.76 total games.

Match Analysis

Ruud comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 25) with a stronger Elo (1933.7) and a superior form index (65.65) compared with Navone (rank 44, Elo 1710.7, form 55.39). Ruud’s surface strength index (45.99) also comfortably outpaces Navone’s (28.76), suggesting Ruud’s clay comfort should be decisive. Fatigue is a factor: Ruud has accumulated 178 minutes on court in the tournament, while Navone has logged a much heavier 276 minutes, which could blunt the Argentine’s legs in long rallies. Both players serve and return well on paper—Ruud’s mean serve index is 95.63 and Navone’s 94.40, while their mean return indices are close (Ruud 88.85, Navone 89.65)—so there’s no single clear edge in raw serving numbers. Recent results underline Ruud’s consistency on clay this week: straight-set wins over Jenson Brooksby and Raphael Collignon after a loss to Jannik Sinner in Rome. Navone has momentum from wins over Cameron Norrie and Marco Trungelliti but those matches were long (101 and 175 minutes), adding to his tournament fatigue and coming after an earlier three-set loss in Rome.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.8 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Casper Ruud - Mariano Navone) +2.1 Most likely spread: +2 (Casper Ruud wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at a modest 5.54 for the match while the expected double faults are 4.30. On clay, the slower surface and higher bounce usually reduce ace tallies and can increase the chance of late-match double faults due to fatigue; that aligns with these predicted figures. Neither player shows a significantly superior serve rating, so the predicted aces total looks restrained rather than driven by one big server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.5 Most likely: 5 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Casper Ruud's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (49.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and notably better clay aptitude give him the edge, with fitness differentials likely to matter in tight exchanges. The key factor to watch is whether Navone’s heavier match load erodes his consistency late in sets, handing Ruud control in the decisive moments.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel