Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Mariano Navone vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mariano Navone

Rank: #38
40%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #10
60%
Expected Total Games: 35.3
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Why the Model Favors Flavio Cobolli

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +7.3 Flavio Cobolli
Serve & return game +4.1 Mariano Navone
Surface fit +3.6 Flavio Cobolli
Recent form +3.0 Mariano Navone
Recent record by level +2.8 Flavio Cobolli

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Flavio Cobolli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Mariano Navone

  • Current #38 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #60 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #75 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #86 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #91 2025-06-30

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #10 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #22 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #24 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 39.0
ELO Rating: 1698.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1753.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 29.1
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 96.5

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 47.1
ELO Rating: 1886.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1844.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.5
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 27.6
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Mariano Navone
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (1-2) grass Mallorca 173 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) clay Geneva 149 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-0) clay Geneva 101 min

Flavio Cobolli
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mariano Navone
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Wimbledon, Round of 128 on grass — a marquee early test as Mariano Navone meets Flavio Cobolli. The model favors Cobolli to prevail (59.82%) over Navone (40.18%), with an expected total of about 35.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Cobolli comes mainly from overall strength (+7.3 percentage points) and better surface fit (+3.6 pp), while Navone picks up ground from his serve & return profile (+4.1 pp) and recent form (+3.0 pp). Cobolli’s higher Elo (1885.8 vs 1697.5) and superior ranking (No. 10 vs No. 38) underpin the overall-strength advantage, and his surface strength index (27.6) better aligns with grass conditions than Navone’s (10.0). The recent-record-by-level factor (+2.8 pp to Cobolli) also favors him, reflecting stronger results against higher-tier opponents in recent meetings. Navone brings a very strong return metric (mean return index 96.54 vs Cobolli 86.44 — a >10-point gap) that can trouble Cobolli’s service games; that differential is one of the reasons the model grants Navone a non-negligible chance. Serve quality is similar between them (mean serve indices ~96.0 vs 95.0), and both arrive with no tournament fatigue recorded. Over their last three matches Navone has a 1–2 record (a straight-sets win over Brooksby, followed by two three-set losses including a close grass loss in Mallorca), while Cobolli is also 1–2 (a notable clay win over Auger-Aliassime but defeats to Zverev and a straight-sets grass loss to Tiafoe).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.3 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mariano Navone - Flavio Cobolli) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Flavio Cobolli wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction: the match is expected to produce about 12.44 total aces; predicted aces are supported by grass as the fastest surface, which tends to lift ace counts. Double faults prediction: the expected double faults total is 8.13. Neither player has a substantially higher serve index, so the ace count may be tempered by Navone’s superior return, which could reduce free points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.4 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.1 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Mariano Navone's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (27.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s edge stems chiefly from overall strength — higher Elo and ranking plus a better grass fit. Watch whether Navone’s standout return game can neutralize Cobolli’s serve holds; that matchup will decide how tight this projected 35-game contest becomes.

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