Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Matteo Arnaldi vs Fabian Marozsan Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #37
49%
VS

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #61
51%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 45.7
ELO Rating: 1352.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1625.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 144.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.2

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 52.6
ELO Rating: 1368.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 45.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.2
Clay: 10.0
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (2-1) clay Geneva 144 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (0-2) clay Rome 114 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-1) clay Madrid 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) clay Madrid 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) clay Madrid 104 min

Fabian Marozsan

  • Last Match: vs Karue Sell (2-0) clay Geneva 45 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) clay Rome 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) clay Rome 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (2-0) clay Rome 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Madrid 115 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Fabian Marozsan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Geneva tournament, held on clay, Matteo Arnaldi faces Fabian Marozsan. The match promises to be competitive, with Marozsan slightly favored to win at a probability of 51.22%, compared to Arnaldi's 48.78%. The predicted total number of games played is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Matteo Arnaldi enters the match ranked 37th, with a form index of 45.75 and an Elo rating of 1352.51. His cumulative fatigue is relatively high at 144 minutes, potentially impacting his performance. His strength on clay is reflected in a surface strength index of 12.37, and he boasts a mean serve index of 97.09, indicating a solid serving capability. However, his mean return index of 88.24 suggests he may struggle a bit on the return against Marozsan. On the other hand, Fabian Marozsan, ranked 61st, has a slightly better form index of 52.64 and an Elo rating of 1368.12. His fatigue level is significantly lower at 45 minutes, offering him an advantage in stamina. While Marozsan's surface strength index is lower at 10.02, his mean serve index of 95.60 and mean return index of 87.16 indicate he can hold his own in both serving and returning, though the difference in serve index is not substantial enough to be critical. In their last three matches, Arnaldi secured a win against Hugo Gaston but faced two losses against higher-ranked opponents, while Marozsan won against Karue Sell but lost to Jakub Mensik, showcasing a mixed bag of performances.

Final Prediction

Fabian Marozsan appears to have the edge going into this match, primarily due to his lower fatigue levels and slightly better form index. A key factor to observe will be Marozsan's ability to capitalize on Arnaldi's return game, which could significantly influence the match outcome.