Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #48
47%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #59
53%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #48 2025-10-20
  • 3 mo ago #24 2025-07-21
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #25 2024-10-21

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #59 2025-10-20
  • 3 mo ago #42 2025-07-21
  • 6 mo ago #31 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #41 2024-10-21

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 20.8
ELO Rating: 1441.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1625.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 86.6

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 33.7
ELO Rating: 1444.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.7
Clay: 14.5
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 84.2

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Matteo Berrettini
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alexei Popyrin and Matteo Berrettini at the ATP 500 tournament in Vienna promises to be an engaging contest on hard courts. With a predicted total of 24 games, Matteo Berrettini is slightly favored to win, holding a probability of 53.26% compared to Popyrin's 46.74%.

Match Analysis

Alexei Popyrin currently holds a rank of 48, and his form index stands at 20.81, indicating some challenges in recent performances. His Elo rating is 1440.99, and he exhibits a surface strength index of 14.38. Notably, Popyrin boasts a mean serve index of 97.72, which is slightly higher than Berrettini's 96.80. However, his mean return index of 86.65 is significantly better than Berrettini's 84.17, suggesting he may have a slight advantage in returning serves. Both players enter the match without cumulative fatigue from the current tournament, as indicated by a fatigue score of 0.0. In contrast, Matteo Berrettini, ranked 59, has a higher form index of 33.69, reflecting a stronger recent performance overall. His Elo rating is marginally better at 1444.26. Reviewing their last three matches, Popyrin has struggled, losing two out of three matches, including a recent defeat to Sebastian Korda. Berrettini has also faced challenges, losing to Ugo Humbert but secured a victory against Giulio Zeppieri. Overall, Berrettini's recent form presents him as a more reliable competitor heading into this match.

Final Prediction

Matteo Berrettini holds a slight edge due to his higher form index and recent match performances, which suggest greater resilience. A key factor to watch will be Popyrin's ability to leverage his superior return index to challenge Berrettini’s serves effectively throughout the match.

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