Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino Prediction

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #128
58%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #79
42%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili

Why the Model Favors Nikoloz Basilashvili

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.4 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Age +3.8 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Recent form +1.9 Adrian Mannarino
Overall record & opposition quality +1.6 Adrian Mannarino
Surface fit +1.5 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Nikoloz Basilashvili. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #128 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #130 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #120 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #105 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #96 2025-10-20

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #79 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #46 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #46 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #69 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 58.6
ELO Rating: 1665.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1702.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 318.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.1
Clay: 23.3
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.1

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 53.3
ELO Rating: 1673.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1644.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 282.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.1
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 22.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
vs
1
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Basilashvili is favored in the Almaty Quarterfinals, 58% to 42%, a narrow margin that leaves Mannarino firmly in contention. The forecast points to 24.6 games, suggesting a match with room to go long.

Match Analysis

The main separation is Basilashvili’s serve and return: he has the stronger profile in both areas, giving him ways to pressure Mannarino on either side of the net. The age comparison also favors Basilashvili, helping explain the lean despite Mannarino’s higher ranking. Mannarino, ranked 79th to Basilashvili’s 128th, has the stronger recent results against high-level opposition. He beat Andrey Rublev in his last match and Aleksandar Vukic before that, both in three sets, a run that gives him a credible case to push the favorite.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nikoloz Basilashvili - Adrian Mannarino) +0.6 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Basilashvili is projected for 9.1 aces and 3.7 double faults, while Mannarino is forecast for 6.1 aces and 2.4 double faults. Basilashvili’s stronger serving profile accounts for the projected ace gap, with both players expected to produce several double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.7 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Nikoloz Basilashvili 9.1 + Adrian Mannarino 6.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Nikoloz Basilashvili 3.7 + Adrian Mannarino 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 9.1 aces

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 6.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 3.7 double faults

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nikoloz Basilashvili's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mannarino’s recent win over Rublev is the clearest reason to doubt the narrow forecast. If he can bring that level of play into this match, his stronger ranking and recent results could turn the contest his way.

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