Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nuno Borges

Rank: #41
37%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #15
63%
Expected Total Games: 39.2
Predicted Winner: Learner Tien

Why the Model Favors Learner Tien

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +3.4 Learner Tien
Head-to-head +3.3 Learner Tien
Overall strength +2.2 Learner Tien
Surface fit +2.1 Learner Tien
Recent form +1.4 Nuno Borges

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Learner Tien. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Nuno Borges

  • Current #41 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #49 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #47 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #41 2025-08-25

Learner Tien

  • Current #15 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #27 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #50 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 47.6
ELO Rating: 1772.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1744.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.1
Clay: 24.0
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.1

Learner Tien

Form Index: 40.8
ELO Rating: 1790.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1840.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.2
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 15.2
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Nuno Borges
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Learner Tien
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nuno Borges
vs
2
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, Round of 128 on hard courts, the model favors Learner Tien. The prediction gives Tien a 63.0% chance to win versus 37.0% for Nuno Borges. The projected total number of games in the match is about 39.24.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Learner Tien comes mainly from age and head-to-head, with support from overall strength and better surface fit. Age contributes 3.4 percentage points toward Tien, and head-to-head contributes 3.3 points. That combines with a slightly higher Elo for Tien (1790.94) versus Borges (1772.03) and a stronger surface strength index for Tien (39.19) versus Borges (31.12). Recent form is the lone factor leaning to Borges by 1.4 points, reflecting his wins in Cincinnati over Andrey Rublev and Francisco Cerundolo earlier in the event. Rank and basic metrics underline the picture. Tien is the higher-ranked player at 15, Borges is 41. Form indexes are 40.79 for Tien and 47.57 for Borges. Both arrive with no tournament fatigue recorded. Serve profiles are close: Borges mean serve index 96.80, Tien 95.17, so there is no significant serve gap. Return indexes are essentially matched, 88.15 for Borges and 88.23 for Tien. Over the last three matches, Borges posted two straight wins in Cincinnati before a loss to Nakashima, showing resilience and recent match wins. Tien has been more up and down, with a strong win over Sebastian Baez followed by losses to Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton in his prior three.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.2 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nuno Borges - Learner Tien) -1.5 Most likely spread: -2 (Learner Tien wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard court match is 16.24 total, with predicted aces split roughly 8.51 for Borges and 7.83 for Tien. The expected double faults total is 8.35, split 3.71 for Borges and 4.64 for Tien. Hard courts tend to produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay, which fits these predicted aces. Since serve ratings are similar, the per player ace projections are close at 8.51 and 7.83.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.2 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Nuno Borges 8.5 + Learner Tien 7.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.3 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Nuno Borges 3.7 + Learner Tien 4.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Nuno Borges

Expected 8.5 aces

Learner Tien

Expected 7.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Nuno Borges

Expected 3.7 double faults

Learner Tien

Expected 4.6 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nuno Borges's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (28.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Learner Tien’s projection is driven chiefly by age as the top model key factor, supported by a slight Elo and surface-fit advantage. Watch how returns are handled early on, and whether Borges can convert his recent form into pressure on Tien’s service games.

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