Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Reilly Opelka vs Benjamin Bonzi Prediction

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #61
55%
VS

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #47
45%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Reilly Opelka

Ranking Trends

Reilly Opelka

  • Current Rank: #61 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #70 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #104 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #293 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #309 (2024-09-30)

Benjamin Bonzi

  • Current Rank: #47 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #64 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #62 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #75 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #176 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 31.6
ELO Rating: 1038.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 82.8

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 48.0
ELO Rating: 1121.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1581.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.8
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 7.0
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Reilly Opelka
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Comesana (1-2) hard Cincinnati 188 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) hard Cincinnati 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) hard Cincinnati 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Toronto 85 min

Benjamin Bonzi
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (0-2) hard Beijing 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Cincinnati 74 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Reilly Opelka
vs
0
Benjamin Bonzi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Reilly Opelka and Benjamin Bonzi in the Round of 128 at the Shanghai Masters promises to be an intriguing contest on hard courts. With Opelka slightly favored to win, he holds a probability of 55.06%, while Bonzi trails with a 44.94% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is set at 24.0, indicating a potentially competitive match.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka, ranked 61, possesses a form index of 31.60 and an Elo rating of 1038.04, while Benjamin Bonzi, ranked 47, has a higher form index of 48.03 and an Elo rating of 1121.05. Despite Bonzi's superior ranking and Elo rating, Opelka's strength on hard surfaces is noteworthy, as indicated by a surface strength index of 8.92 compared to Bonzi's 9.83. Opelka also showcases a significant advantage in mean serve index at 98.53, outpacing Bonzi's 95.30 by more than the 5-point threshold. However, Bonzi leads in return capabilities with a mean return index of 86.35 against Opelka’s 82.84, which could play a crucial role in the match dynamics. In their recent performances, Opelka has faced challenges, losing his last two matches, including a straight-set defeat at the US Open. His only recent victory came against Alex de Minaur. Conversely, Bonzi has also struggled, with his last match ending in a defeat and a similar pattern observed in his prior two matches, where he managed to win only one against Marcos Giron. Both players are coming in with fresh legs, as indicated by their fatigue levels being at 0.0 minutes.

Final Prediction

Opelka's edge in serving strength could be pivotal in this matchup, as he may be able to capitalize on his powerful serve to dictate points. A key factor to watch will be Bonzi's ability to return Opelka's serve effectively, as this could tilt the match in his favor if he can neutralize Opelka's serving advantage.