London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Round of 32

Reilly Opelka vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #75
51%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #53
49%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Reilly Opelka

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Ranking Trends

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #75 2025-06-16
  • 3 mo ago #114 2025-03-17
  • 6 mo ago #293 2024-12-16
  • 9 mo ago #308 2024-09-16
  • 12 mo ago #1185 2024-06-17

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #53 2025-06-16
  • 3 mo ago #65 2025-03-17
  • 6 mo ago #97 2024-12-16
  • 9 mo ago #91 2024-09-16
  • 12 mo ago #114 2024-06-17

Player Metrics

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 46.7
ELO Rating: 936.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 98.8
Return Rating: 84.0

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 26.8
ELO Rating: 790.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1566.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Reilly Opelka
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (0-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 68 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Jarry (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 163 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mark Lajal (0-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 75 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Reilly Opelka
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 tournament in London, Reilly Opelka is set to face Camilo Ugo Carabelli on grass. The analysis predicts a closely contested match, with Opelka having a slight edge as the projected winner with a probability of 51.32%, while Carabelli holds a probability of 48.68%. The predicted total number of games played is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka, currently ranked 75, showcases a form index of 46.70 and an Elo rating of 936.62, indicating a solid level of play, particularly on grass. His surface strength index of 5.27 suggests he competes well on this type of court, and his mean serve index of 98.75 is notably higher than Carabelli's 95.05, creating a significant advantage in serving power. Conversely, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, ranked 53, has a lower form index of 26.80 and an Elo rating of 790.69, reflecting recent struggles. His mean return index of 88.90 does surpass Opelka's 84.04, indicating a stronger capacity to return serve. In their recent performances, Opelka's last three matches have been mixed; he recorded a win against Daniil Medvedev but lost his most recent match against Zizou Bergs. Carabelli has faced challenges as well, losing his last two matches at Roland Garros and Hamburg, with his only victory coming prior against Sebastian Baez. This inconsistency could play a pivotal role in the upcoming match.

Final Prediction

Reilly Opelka's advantage in serving ability and recent experience on grass gives him a slight edge over Camilo Ugo Carabelli, whose performance has been less reliable of late. A key factor to observe will be Opelka's ability to maintain his serve throughout the match, as this could heavily influence the outcome.

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