Sebastian Baez vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Lehecka arrives as the higher-ranked and higher-rated player: world No. 24 with an Elo of 1772.65, compared with Baez at No. 52 and an Elo of 1201.37. Form indices give Lehecka a modest edge (53.90 vs 47.66). Fatigue is a clear factor — Baez has accumulated 76 minutes on court in the event while Lehecka is listed with zero tournament minutes. Both players show relatively low surface strength indices for hard courts (Baez 6.62, Lehecka 13.30), but Lehecka’s serving profile stands out: his mean serve index (98.34) is far higher than Baez’s (69.41), a difference well over 5 points. There’s also a notable gap in return capability: Lehecka’s mean return index (88.84) exceeds Baez’s (82.71) by more than 5 points, suggesting Lehecka is superior on both wings of the ball per these metrics. Over their last three matches, Baez has mixed results: a straight-sets win at Indian Wells over Chun-Hsin Tseng, bookended by a win and a loss in Santiago on clay (victory over Tabilo, defeat to Darderi). Lehecka’s recent slate on hard courts in Dubai was largely positive — wins over Pablo Carreño Busta and Luca Nardi before a straight-sets loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime — showing consistent deep-match minutes but no fatigue carried into this event.