Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Sebastian Korda vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #53
47%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #13
53%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Ranking Trends

Sebastian Korda

  • Current Rank: #53 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #48 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #86 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #23 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #22 (2025-02-17)

Casper Ruud

  • Current Rank: #13 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #12 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #12 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #7 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 50.0
ELO Rating: 1081.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1703.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 194.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.8
Clay: 9.2
Grass: 9.1
Serve Rating: 80.0
Return Rating: 34.6

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 68.2
ELO Rating: 2644.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1914.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 142.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.0
Clay: 22.3
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Sebastian Korda
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Delray Beach 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) hard Delray Beach 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) hard Dallas 149 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Dallas 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Zheng (2-0) hard Dallas 67 min

Casper Ruud
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Delray Beach 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Korda
vs
2
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Delray Beach, Florida is a hard-court matchup at an ATP 250-level event between Sebastian Korda and Casper Ruud. The model favors Casper Ruud to advance (53.17% win probability) over Sebastian Korda (46.83%), with an expected total of about 24.01 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Ruud arrives as the higher-ranked and more consistent player on paper: world No. 13 versus Korda at No. 53, with form indexes of 68.19 (Ruud) and 50.02 (Korda). The Elo gap is substantial (Ruud 2644.37 vs Korda 1081.81), indicating a clear historical-performance edge. Fatigue numbers show Korda has logged 194 minutes so far in this tournament versus Ruud’s 142, which could matter late in rallies. On serve and return metrics Ruud also holds notable advantages. His mean serve index (97.42) exceeds Korda’s (80.00) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (86.71) is far higher than Korda’s (34.63); both differences are material and suggest Ruud will be tougher to break while also better at pressuring Korda’s service games. Surface strength indices are modest for both (Ruud ~16, Korda ~6.8) but favor Ruud. Recent match patterns: Korda has two straight-sets wins this week in Delray Beach (over Michelsen and McDonald) after a three-set loss to Taylor Fritz in Dallas. Ruud’s recent slate includes a three-set win over Marcos Giron here and mixed results at the Australian Open (a loss to Ben Shelton and a win over Marin Cilic), with several long matches indicating resilience in extended encounters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is moderate: the model’s predicted aces total is 13.22. Expected double faults are relatively low at 4.4. On a medium-paced hard surface, predicted aces tend to be balanced—more than clay but fewer than grass—and Ruud’s significantly higher serve rating likely pushes the predicted aces upward. Given the serve-edge, Ruud’s delivery will be a key contributor to the predicted ace count, while both players are expected to limit double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s superior Elo, stronger serve and return profiles, and marginally better form give him the edge in this quarterfinal. Watch Ruud’s ability to convert free points on serve and to neutralize Korda’s baseline rhythm—those factors should decide how close the match becomes.

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