Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #75
52%
VS

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Rank: #58
48%
Expected Total Games: 29.6
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #75 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #33 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #34 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-05-19

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

  • Current #58 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #58 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #59 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #39 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 38.9
ELO Rating: 1669.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.0
Clay: 22.7
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 89.5

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 33.2
ELO Rating: 1540.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1587.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.2
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 10.2
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 80.9

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) clay Rome 98 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (1-2) clay Madrid 177 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Merida (2-0) clay Madrid 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (2-0) clay Madrid 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (2-1) clay Madrid 158 min

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clash in Geneva, Switzerland, on clay pits Stefanos Tsitsipas against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in an ATP 250 event. The model leans to Tsitsipas as the projected winner (52.27% vs 47.73%) with a fairly tight matchup expected; the predicted total number of games is 29.63.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas enters ranked 75 with an Elo of 1669.7, a form index of 38.86 and a clay surface-strength index of 22.68. Perricard is ranked 58 with an Elo of 1540.9, form index 33.19 and a lower surface index of 12.42. Both arrive fresh from no cumulative fatigue on tour court minutes. Their mean serve indices are very close (Tsitsipas 96.16, Perricard 97.14), so serve firepower is comparable, but Tsitsipas holds a clearer edge in return capability (mean return index 89.52 vs 80.91), a difference worth noting on a surface that rewards consistent retrievers. Recent results underline how thin the margin is: Tsitsipas has one win (Madrid R32) and two tough losses on clay (Madrid and Rome), including a straight-sets exit in Rome. Perricard also showed mixed clay form — a hard-fought win in Rome against Fearnley preceded losses to Musetti in Rome and Carabelli on hard courts earlier in the season. Both players have had extended matches recently, indicating they are battle-tested even if results have been inconsistent.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 29.6 Most likely outcome: 30 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at a combined 17.44 for the match while the predicted double faults total is 6.36. On clay, the predicted aces are tempered by slower speed and higher bounce, so the predicted aces reflect that reduction; conversely, expected double faults can creep up in longer rallies and physical ties. Neither player has a markedly superior serve rating to push ace totals dramatically higher, so these predicted aces and expected double faults fit a clay baseline.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.4 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

55.0% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stefanos Tsitsipas's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (28.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tsitsipas’s superior return profile and higher Elo give him a narrow edge in Geneva, reflected in the slim probability gap. Key factor to watch: Tsitsipas’s ability to convert return opportunities early in sets — that will likely decide whether the match stays tight or tips in his favor.

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